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- 07-12-2010, 12:46 PM #31JustinGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
Oxford wrote on [Mon, 12 Jul 2010 11:56:33 -0600]:
> Dennis Ferguson <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> I'd wait to see the results from the next report before
>> getting too excited. Apple typically doesn't sell many phones
>> in the two quarters before a new model is released, and then
>> sells a pile of them in the two quarters after that, while
>> new Android models seem to be available all the time.
>>
>> If Android can keep gaining share on Apple in the iPhone's
>> good quarters that would be quite interesting.
>
> yes, it's funny to watch the droid fan club fawn over fractional gains,
> right before a massive title-wave is about to hit them.
What's a title wave?
> android devices are getting terrible reviews from consumers, so it's
> looking like they will end up like linux.
They are getting rave reviews
› See More: Impressive iPhone 4 Video Quality
- 07-12-2010, 12:54 PM #32Richard B. GilbertGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
Justin wrote:
> Oxford wrote on [Mon, 12 Jul 2010 11:56:33 -0600]:
>> Dennis Ferguson <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>> I'd wait to see the results from the next report before
>>> getting too excited. Apple typically doesn't sell many phones
>>> in the two quarters before a new model is released, and then
>>> sells a pile of them in the two quarters after that, while
>>> new Android models seem to be available all the time.
>>>
>>> If Android can keep gaining share on Apple in the iPhone's
>>> good quarters that would be quite interesting.
>> yes, it's funny to watch the droid fan club fawn over fractional gains,
>> right before a massive title-wave is about to hit them.
>
> What's a title wave?
Just a little imagination should tell you that he meant "tidal" and
can't *****!
- 07-12-2010, 12:54 PM #33JC DillGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
Oxford wrote:
> John Navas <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>>> but the iPhone platform is growing much faster, you forgot to add that
>>> little detail.
>> Actually not.
>
> That's what the data shows, so it appears you aren't looking at the
> facts.
>
> Android at 9% is growing at 2%,
at 2% of what? Is it gaining 2% against its own numbers (e.g. 2% of 9%)
or is it gaining 2% against the entire market? USUALLY these growth
rate figures are based on market share.
> iPhone at 28% is growing at 2%, so
> iPhone units are growing 3 times faster.
>
> Are you bad at math or something?
This isn't a math problem, it's a logic problem. You need to first use
logic to figure out what that 2% is referring to before you can use any
math to figure out the solution.
A product that moves from 7% to 9% of the market (gaining 2%) increased
their customer base by 2/7 = 28% growth. A product that moves from 26%
to 28% of the market (gaining 2%) increases the customer base by 2/26 =
8% growth. (This assumes the market itself doesn't grow or shrink - it
does, but we don't know how much so I'm leaving it out for now.)
The less market share you have, the faster you can grow (as a percent of
the market) so players with a very small market share can have very
"fast growth" - e.g. going from 1% to 2% is an increase of 100% (for
that product) in the company's sales, but it's just a 1% increase in
their market share. Conversely, it's much harder for a company which
has significant market share to increase their share. A company that
has 50% of the market has to work much harder to grow their share 50%
(to 75% of the market) than a company which has 10% of the market (which
only needs to grow to 15% of the market to have a 50% increase in their
share).
I hope this wasn't too complicated for you to follow. If you think I'm
wrong (and it's entirely possible! :-) please RE-READ to make sure you
understood what I said before you try to denounce it. It's entirely
possible I haven't written this as well as I could to avoid
misunderstandings.
jc
- 07-12-2010, 12:57 PM #34JC DillGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
Oxford wrote:
> and Android has no chance to catch up since they started so late and
> everyone that owns them, hates them.
That's absolutely NOT true. One of the reasons I bought a Droid is my
sister's family has 6 of them (2 teenagers, 2 parents, 2 grandparents -
her husband and his step-father went shopping together and bought all 6
phones, together with the family plan) and they all LOVE their Droids.
This phone works wonderfully for many people. I don't know if this is
because they have lower demands or lower expectations, or if I'm just
pickier than most.
I'm pretty sure that use usenettizens are not in any way representative
of the average user - for anything.
jc
- 07-12-2010, 01:00 PM #35nospamGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
In article <[email protected]>, SMS
<[email protected]> wrote:
> Of course he's starting from a false premise. In reality, Android gained
> 4% market share from March to May 2010 (June and July numbers aren't yet
> available). That's not a 4% increase in sales, it's a 4% increase in
> market share, which is much greater than 4% increase in sales. Of course
> that's just before the iPhone4 was released, but it shouldn't change all
> that much because early iPhone4 buyers were mostly existing iPhone 2G,
> 3G, or 3GS owners upgrading.
the people in line were largely upgrading, but that says nothing about
those who bought online, or who are buying after the initial surge.
> So while that increases iPhone sales, it
> does nothing for market share unless those used iPhones are sold,
> unlocked, and activated on T-Mobile (it would make no sense to buy a
> used iPhone and activate it on a new contract on AT&T because you lose
> the subsidy.
it does increase market share since those who bought the iphone 4 might
have bought something else. t-mobile has absolutely nothing to do with
it.
> In reality, what happens to used iPhones in most cases is
> that they become iPod Touch workalikes (but with a camera).
actually, old iphones are typically hand-me-downs. mom & dad get the
spiffy new one and the kids get the 3g or 3gs.
> The thing about Android devices is that they're "good enough" for most
> users. No, they're not quite as sleek as the iPhone (though the
> Incredible comes close), they don't have the applications base (though
> that base is growing), and the UI is a bit clumsier, but they're good
> enough for most people,
true. some people are satisfied with mediocre, others are not. that's
why there is toyota and lexus (basically the same car).
> and some of the hardware features and included
> capabilities are better (replaceable battery, memory card slot, video
> chat over 3G not just WiFi).
video chat over 3g is not worth the effort. fring just added that to
their iphone app and it's awful. there's a reason why facetime is wifi
only, it has a very high bitrate for quality.
also keep in mind that facetime does not use any cell minutes at all.
you can even make a facetime call and quit the phone app and have a
voice only call without deducting minutes, and with better call quality
too. in other words, every iphone 4 has a built in voip option.
> The thousand pound gorilla is that the Android devices are available on
> all carriers. Those users that won't put up with AT&T's network can't
> get an iPhone anyway, so whatever advantages the iPhone may have are
> moot. They won't give up the coverage of Verizon because in many cases
> they've already experienced how much worse the coverage on other
> carriers truly is.
true, but that will change, and it can't happen soon enough.
> If it's really true that other carriers won't get the iPhone until 2012,
> then Android has won the market share battle. End of story. If Verizon
> gets the iPhone later this year or in early 2011 then it could still be
> a contest.
market share doesn't matter in the grand scheme of things. nikon and
canon battle it out, and both have roughly equal market share. that's
likely what will happen with iphone and android. the rest will become
niche.
- 07-12-2010, 01:01 PM #36nospamGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
In article <[email protected]>, Oxford
<[email protected]> wrote:
> What? the Android isn't grow faster than the iPhone / iPad, not even
> close, that was a myth made up by bitter Android owners.
actually, it is.
> Yes, Apple will be happy with 72% of the entire cell market in the next
> 10 years, you are correct about that.
you're pulling numbers out of your ass again. 72% of the entire cell
market is absurd.
- 07-12-2010, 01:39 PM #37JustinGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
Richard B. Gilbert wrote on [Mon, 12 Jul 2010 14:54:04 -0400]:
> Justin wrote:
>> Oxford wrote on [Mon, 12 Jul 2010 11:56:33 -0600]:
>>> Dennis Ferguson <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>
>>>> I'd wait to see the results from the next report before
>>>> getting too excited. Apple typically doesn't sell many phones
>>>> in the two quarters before a new model is released, and then
>>>> sells a pile of them in the two quarters after that, while
>>>> new Android models seem to be available all the time.
>>>>
>>>> If Android can keep gaining share on Apple in the iPhone's
>>>> good quarters that would be quite interesting.
>>> yes, it's funny to watch the droid fan club fawn over fractional gains,
>>> right before a massive title-wave is about to hit them.
>>
>> What's a title wave?
>
> Just a little imagination should tell you that he meant "tidal" and
> can't *****!
Just a little imagination and you would realise your replies are always
useless.
- 07-12-2010, 01:57 PM #38Richard B. GilbertGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
Justin wrote:
> Richard B. Gilbert wrote on [Mon, 12 Jul 2010 14:54:04 -0400]:
>> Justin wrote:
>>> Oxford wrote on [Mon, 12 Jul 2010 11:56:33 -0600]:
>>>> Dennis Ferguson <[email protected]> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> I'd wait to see the results from the next report before
>>>>> getting too excited. Apple typically doesn't sell many phones
>>>>> in the two quarters before a new model is released, and then
>>>>> sells a pile of them in the two quarters after that, while
>>>>> new Android models seem to be available all the time.
>>>>>
>>>>> If Android can keep gaining share on Apple in the iPhone's
>>>>> good quarters that would be quite interesting.
>>>> yes, it's funny to watch the droid fan club fawn over fractional gains,
>>>> right before a massive title-wave is about to hit them.
>>> What's a title wave?
>> Just a little imagination should tell you that he meant "tidal" and
>> can't *****!
>
> Just a little imagination and you would realise your replies are always
> useless.
I only do it to annoy you!
- 07-12-2010, 04:36 PM #39OxfordGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
JC Dill <[email protected]> wrote:
> > and Android has no chance to catch up since they started so late and
> > everyone that owns them, hates them.
>
> That's absolutely NOT true. One of the reasons I bought a Droid is my
> sister's family has 6 of them (2 teenagers, 2 parents, 2 grandparents -
> her husband and his step-father went shopping together and bought all 6
> phones, together with the family plan) and they all LOVE their Droids.
> This phone works wonderfully for many people. I don't know if this is
> because they have lower demands or lower expectations, or if I'm just
> pickier than most.
But compared to the iPhone, Android devices are universally hated. They
just don't have a solid reference point, so yes, their expectations are
much lower. Sure, they'll work, but the hardware and software quality is
very poor. Check out the real device and you'll see why everyone feels
that way.
http://www.apple.com/iphone/features/
> I'm pretty sure that use usenettizens are not in any way representative
> of the average user - for anything.
true, but anyone that uses both platforms chooses the iPhone every time.
- 07-12-2010, 04:40 PM #40OxfordGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
Justin <[email protected]> wrote:
> > yes, it's funny to watch the droid fan club fawn over fractional gains,
> > right before a massive title-wave is about to hit them.
>
> What's a title wave?
many, very large tits on a beach
> > android devices are getting terrible reviews from consumers, so it's
> > looking like they will end up like linux.
>
> They are getting rave reviews
where? all reviews comparing to iphones mark them 30-40% lower in terms
of value & functionality.
- 07-12-2010, 04:44 PM #41OxfordGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
nospam <[email protected]> wrote:
> > What? the Android isn't grow faster than the iPhone / iPad, not even
> > close, that was a myth made up by bitter Android owners.
>
> actually, it is.
no, both platforms are growing at 2%, but since the iphone is 3 times
larger, it's growing 3 time faster.
> > Yes, Apple will be happy with 72% of the entire cell market in the next
> > 10 years, you are correct about that.
>
> you're pulling numbers out of your ass again. 72% of the entire cell
> market is absurd.
you must have missed the "10 years" portion of the comment. yes, it
could be more than 72%, is that what you mean?
- 07-12-2010, 04:49 PM #42nospamGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
In article <[email protected]>, Oxford
<[email protected]> wrote:
> But compared to the iPhone, Android devices are universally hated.
nope.
- 07-12-2010, 04:53 PM #43OxfordGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
JC Dill <[email protected]> wrote:
> > Android at 9% is growing at 2%,
>
> at 2% of what? Is it gaining 2% against its own numbers (e.g. 2% of 9%)
> or is it gaining 2% against the entire market? USUALLY these growth
> rate figures are based on market share.
you don't keep up with the numbers, the last official marketshare report
shows 2% growth of the 9% (current share) for the android platform, and
2% growth of 28% for the iphone.
> > iPhone at 28% is growing at 2%, so
> > iPhone units are growing 3 times faster.
> >
> > Are you bad at math or something?
>
> This isn't a math problem, it's a logic problem. You need to first use
> logic to figure out what that 2% is referring to before you can use any
> math to figure out the solution.
you need to keep up with the numbers, i didn't realize i needed to *****
it out.
> A product that moves from 7% to 9% of the market (gaining 2%) increased
> their customer base by 2/7 = 28% growth. A product that moves from 26%
> to 28% of the market (gaining 2%) increases the customer base by 2/26 =
> 8% growth. (This assumes the market itself doesn't grow or shrink - it
> does, but we don't know how much so I'm leaving it out for now.)
>
> The less market share you have, the faster you can grow (as a percent of
> the market) so players with a very small market share can have very
> "fast growth" - e.g. going from 1% to 2% is an increase of 100% (for
> that product) in the company's sales, but it's just a 1% increase in
> their market share. Conversely, it's much harder for a company which
> has significant market share to increase their share. A company that
> has 50% of the market has to work much harder to grow their share 50%
> (to 75% of the market) than a company which has 10% of the market (which
> only needs to grow to 15% of the market to have a 50% increase in their
> share).
yes, and that means the android is growing more slowly than the
iphone... that's not a surprise since everyone wants the iphone unless
they are locked into verizon.
> I hope this wasn't too complicated for you to follow. If you think I'm
> wrong (and it's entirely possible! :-) please RE-READ to make sure you
> understood what I said before you try to denounce it. It's entirely
> possible I haven't written this as well as I could to avoid
> misunderstandings.
yes, you need to learn more before you comment. thanks for coming to
that realization.
- 07-12-2010, 04:53 PM #44nospamGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
In article <[email protected]>, Oxford
<[email protected]> wrote:
> > > What? the Android isn't grow faster than the iPhone / iPad, not even
> > > close, that was a myth made up by bitter Android owners.
> >
> > actually, it is.
>
> no, both platforms are growing at 2%, but since the iphone is 3 times
> larger, it's growing 3 time faster.
is that like your personal redefinition of subsidized?
> > > Yes, Apple will be happy with 72% of the entire cell market in the next
> > > 10 years, you are correct about that.
> >
> > you're pulling numbers out of your ass again. 72% of the entire cell
> > market is absurd.
>
> you must have missed the "10 years" portion of the comment. yes, it
> could be more than 72%, is that what you mean?
nobody has any idea what the cellphone market will be like in 5 years
(certainly not you), let alone 10, and it's unlikely that anyone is
going to have 72% of it all to themselves.
- 07-12-2010, 04:56 PM #45OxfordGuest
Re: Android Gains, Apple Wanes -- Oh Yes, Yet Again
nospam <[email protected]> wrote:
> > Android at 9% is growing at 2%, iPhone at 28% is growing at 2%, so
> > iPhone units are growing 3 times faster.
>
> 2% growth of android is 3 times faster than 2% growth of iphone? that's
> very interesting math.
>
> > Are you bad at math or something?
>
> you clearly are.
you're the one that didn't understand basic math, not me...
which generates the larger number?
2% of 9%
2% of 28%
waiting...
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