Subscribers, Market Share, Additions, and Churn-Updated with 2Q T-Mobile results

Now that T-Mobile has released their second quarter
results I have updated the statistics page of my web
sites with their data. I had originally extrapolated the
same 1Q results for T-Mobile onto 2Q, but actually
the added far less subcribers in the second quarter
than in the first.

"http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics.htm"

[posted via phonescoop.com - free web access to the alt.cellular groups]

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› See More: Subscribers, Market Share, Additions, and Churn-Updated with 2Q T-Mobile results

In article <[email protected]>,
[email protected] (Steven Scharf) wrote:

> http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics.htm

An argument could be made that Churn rate is proportional to
Customer Service scaring customers away.
3% per month = 36% per year / yikes

"Phillipe" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news[email protected]...
> In article <[email protected]>,
> [email protected] (Steven Scharf) wrote:
>
> > http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics.htm
>
> An argument could be made that Churn rate is proportional to
> Customer Service scaring customers away.
> 3% per month = 36% per year / yikes

When I first started compiling these statistics I just
couldn't believe the yearly churn rates were as high
as they really are. I thought that I must have been
misinterpreting the statistics and that the rates were
actually quarterly, but the 10Q reports did confirm that
the reported rates are the average of monthly churn
rates for the three months of the quarter, not a 3 month
churn rate.

Even at 1.4% (the retail churn rate for Verizon), that's
16.8% a year, which is nothing to write home about since
1/6 of your customers leave every year. At 3%
(T-Mobile) it's 36% per year, which is incredibly high
considering that new subscribers are locked into one
or two year contracts.

The real interesting statistics will be next year after LNP.
There have been a lot a predictions made by analysts,
and in fact Verizon's recent about-face on LNP was due
to their realization that they have the most to gain from LNP
and they better take advantage of it.

"Steven M. Scharf" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> Even at 1.4% (the retail churn rate for Verizon), that's
> 16.8% a year, which is nothing to write home about since
> 1/6 of your customers leave every year. At 3%
> (T-Mobile) it's 36% per year, which is incredibly high
> considering that new subscribers are locked into one
> or two year contracts.

Those are some impressive rates. I think that the great deals you get
for switching are part of the picture here. A lot of providers seem
happy to make their existing customers pay a lot more than their new
customers. Regardless of the reasons for this - and I understand
subsidies and such - its effect on the customer is to encourage churn.

> The real interesting statistics will be next year after LNP.
> There have been a lot a predictions made by analysts,
> and in fact Verizon's recent about-face on LNP was due
> to their realization that they have the most to gain from LNP
> and they better take advantage of it.

Really? I thought it was coincident with their loss of a court case,
and the seeming inevitability of LNP. Once they realized that, yes, it
really _was_ going to happen, they figured they might as well make it
hurt less. I'm utterly unconvinced that they genuinely want it.

Phillipe <[email protected]> wrote in article
<[email protected]>:
> In article <[email protected]>,
> John Navas <[email protected]> wrote:
>
> > Indeed. Steven is just so pro-Verizon that he'll try to spin just about
> > anything.
>
> Why do you say that? I saw zero that gave me that impression.

YOY comparisons/changes would be more beneficial IMO to determine
trends. Sequential quarterly compaisons, while potentially useful, can
be "explained away" by a number of things. If you look at YOY results
(total churn, churn trend, total subs added, change in market share,
etc.) you will really find out which carrier is "doing it right" as far
as the marketplace, the cosumers, are concerned.

[posted via phonescoop.com - free web access to the alt.cellular groups]

"Phillipe" <[email protected]> wrote:
> [email protected] (Steven Scharf) wrote:
>
> > http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics.htm
>
> An argument could be made that Churn rate is proportional to
> Customer Service scaring customers away.
> 3% per month = 36% per year / yikes

But remember Benjamin Disraeli's quote:
"Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics"


While "raw" churn is important, especially when compared to other carriers,
it should be noted that there are numerous factors that can cause churn that
are not related to customer service. For Example:

Moving out of (service) area -- there is a lot of
"churn" in people simply moving around the country

Receiving a "company phone" from employer

And so on...


What I'd like to see are the LOSS / ADD numbers broken down by reason.

In article <[email protected]>,
"[ a m z ]" <[email protected]> wrote:

> > [email protected] (Steven Scharf) wrote:
> >
> > > http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics.htm
> >
> > An argument could be made that Churn rate is proportional to
> > Customer Service scaring customers away.
> > 3% per month = 36% per year / yikes
>
> But remember Benjamin Disraeli's quote:
> "Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics"

Those that don't like the facts always look for ways to
cast doubt upon the, Sprint has BAD churn rates, caused in large part
by bad (JD POWER proved this) Customer Service.

"Phillipe ." <[email protected]> wrote:
> "[ a m z ]" <[email protected]> wrote:
> > > [email protected] (Steven Scharf) wrote:
> > >
> > > > http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics.htm
> > >
> > > An argument could be made that Churn rate is proportional to
> > > Customer Service scaring customers away.
> > > 3% per month = 36% per year / yikes
> >
> > But remember Benjamin Disraeli's quote:
> > "Lies, Damned Lies & Statistics"
>
> Those that don't like the facts always look for ways to cast doubt
> upon the, Sprint has BAD churn rates, caused in large part
> by bad (JD POWER proved this) Customer Service.

Before you get your undies in a bundle, let me say that I have no opinion
whatsoever about Sprint's service. Now...

Ask anyone in statistics or marketing. You can make numbers "say" anything
you want just by the way you present them. There is a big difference
between "causal relationship" and "coincidence."

To illustrate, here is an example based on true experiences: I have a Brand
X phone on Plan 123 with ABC Wireless. ABC decides to phase out part of the
technology in Plan 123 despite earlier promises not to. Brand X no longer
makes that model of phone, either. The phone is *basically* functional on
ABC, but (now) incompatible in many other ways with ABC and other wireless
carriers. It is also obsolete and due for a replacement anyway. CS at ABC
Wireless is uninformed and unsympathetic -- babbling canned "trade up"
speeches instead of offering help. The new plans they offer are worse (more
expensive, fewer features) than the existing (albeit crippled) plan I had.
Prior to this fiasco, I was fairly happy with the carrier (and their CS).

If I had switched carriers, what was my ONE mark-it-on-the-survey reason?

I only see a link to the churn rate stats. Where is the link to a relevant
JD Power analysis? If someone wants to chart churn rate vs. CS ratings
across comparable wireless companies AND control for variables, I'd love to
see it.

"[ a m z ]" <[email protected]> wrote in article
<%[email protected]>:

> I only see a link to the churn rate stats. Where is the link to a relevant
> JD Power analysis? If someone wants to chart churn rate vs. CS ratings
> across comparable wireless companies AND control for variables, I'd love to
> see it.

I think that it is a big mistake to try to attribute
the relative churn rates to any one reason. The
carriers obviously do not report the reasons for
churn.

However there was a study that looked at
why customers change carriers (not for
any particular carrier). I caution that even
this study may be flawed because some of
the reasons people give for leaving may actually
be due to another reason, i.e. it is very likely
that people are attributing coverage issues
incorrectly to handset problems:

Handset Problems 31%
Cost of service (no replacement service) 28%
Coverage 17%
Competitors Rates & Plans 9%
Other 8%
Service 7%




[posted via phonescoop.com]

"Cell Academician" <[email protected]> wrote:
> "[ a m z ]" <[email protected]> wrote in article
>
> > I only see a link to the churn rate stats. Where is the link to a
relevant
> > JD Power analysis? If someone wants to chart churn rate vs. CS ratings
> > across comparable wireless companies AND control for variables, I'd love
to
> > see it.
>
> I think that it is a big mistake to try to attribute
> the relative churn rates to any one reason. The
> carriers obviously do not report the reasons for
> churn.

I was simply looking to see if anyone had somehow plotted CS ratings vs.
churn rate. I wouldn't expect the carriers to disclose why they lose
customers.


> However there was a study that looked at
> why customers change carriers (not for
> any particular carrier). I caution that even
> this study may be flawed because some of
> the reasons people give for leaving may actually
> be due to another reason, i.e. it is very likely
> that people are attributing coverage issues
> incorrectly to handset problems:
>
> Handset Problems 31%
> Cost of service (no replacement service) 28%
> Coverage 17%
> Competitors Rates & Plans 9%
> Other 8%
> Service 7%

That last entry is interesting in contrast to Phillipe's post. I also
believe that people leave for MULTIPLE reasons. No one reason is enough.
My guess is that the reason they cite as leaving is only the "straw that
broke the camel's back," not whole picture. Maybe that last reason would
not have been enough on its own, but as part of a series of episodes...

In article <%[email protected]>,
"[ a m z ]" <[email protected]> wrote:

> I only see a link to the churn rate stats. Where is the link to a relevant
> JD Power analysis? If someone wants to chart churn rate vs. CS ratings
> across comparable wireless companies AND control for variables, I'd love to
> see it.

http://www.jdpower.com/news/releases...asp?ID=2003074