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  1. #1
    SMS
    Guest
    3 August 2006 (NGP)

    Sprint reported quarterly results today, and a German business magazine
    leaked T-Mobile USA's net additions for the second quarter of 2006, so
    we have the the results for the four largest U.S. wireless carriers
    (other than the churn and ARPU for T-Mobile). Market share analysts are
    now able to use precise numbers for their U.S. market share analysis,
    rather than analyst’s estimates. Note that if T-Mobile's numbers are
    different than what the magazine reports, then the figures will change
    slightly.

    It's important to understand that quarterly market share changes are
    measured in fractions of a percent; a quarterly change of more than +/-
    0.5% is virtually unheard of (unless an acquisition has taken place).
    The following table shows what is considered flat, small, moderate,
    large, and very large, market share changes:

    Flat: +/- 0.05%-0%
    Small: +/- 0.06%-0.10%
    Moderate: +/- 0.11%-0.15%
    Large: +/- 0.16%-0.25%
    Very Large: +/- > 0.25%


    2Q2006 Market Share Results

    Sprint
    ------
    Sprint's market share experienced a steep decline of 0.33%.

    Analysts blame Sprint's poor selection of handsets as one of the major
    reasons for their continuing decline in market share. Sprint lacks the
    popular Motorola Razr handset, which is very popular with Verizon,
    Cingular, and T-Mobile users. With wireless number portability,
    subscribers are less hesitant to change to a carrier that has the
    handsets they desire. Sprint does have the largest high speed data
    network, but data has not taken off for any of the carriers, due to the
    high cost, relatively low data rates, and the wide availability of free
    802.11 wireless hot spots. What was supposed to be the
    killer-application has been a big disappointment in terms of actual sales.

    Cingular
    --------
    Cingular was essentially flat, with a tiny 0.04% increase in market
    share. Cingular added less subscribers in 2Q06 than in 1Q06, but their
    market share stayed steady because of Sprint’s offsetting large decline.

    Cingular's flat performance was actually a big improvement for the
    nation's largest carrier. Cingular had been experiencing large declines
    in market share over the past four quarters, for a variety of reasons.
    The carrier has been hammered by their poor performance in independent
    surveys of coverage, quality, and customer service. They've been hit by
    a class-action lawsuit by former AT&T subscribers. They've had a large
    fine by the California Public Utilities Commission upheld, and have been
    sued by Sprint for false advertising claims regarding their "fewest
    dropped calls" advertising campaign. Cingular has a far, far, smaller
    high speed data network than Verizon or Sprint. On the plus side,
    Cingular picked up about 5000 additional sales outlets in 2006, when
    Radio Shack switched from selling Verizon to selling Cingular.

    Cingular expects a decline in market share, and increased churn, as it
    attempts to shed its remaining 5 million or so TDMA & AMPS customers
    prior to shutting down those networks in 2008. The carrier recently
    indicated that they will be raising prices for the remaining TDMA & AMPS
    customers, as an incentive to get them to move to GSM. Many will move to
    Cingular GSM, but the stick, rather than the carrot, approach, will
    cause many subscribers to leave the carrier entirely, as handsets will
    not be free for most of these low-revenue customers, yet other carriers
    are happy to offer free handsets to new customers. This latest move by
    Cingular has attracted worldwide publicity, but it occurred in the third
    quarter so the results of this action are not reflected in the second
    quarter results.

    T-Mobile
    --------
    T-Mobile's market share remained flat for the second quarter in a row,
    with an increase of only 0.04%, the same as Cingular. But while
    Cingular's flat performance reversed many quarters of decline, T-Mobile
    had been growing their market share at a rapid pace up until 1Q2006.
    Subscribers may be tiring of T-Mobile's coverage issues, and deciding
    that having a large number of peak minutes isn't as important as
    actually having a network that these peak minutes can be used on.
    T-Mobile just announced a 1000 minute/$50 family plan, for up to five
    people (no night and weekend minutes included), which is much cheaper
    than what the competition is offering.

    Verizon
    -------
    Verizon was the only carrier to add market share with a large 0.24%
    increase. Verizon was also the only carry to increase its number of net
    additions from the number of net additions from the previous quarter.
    These increases came at the expense of the other carriers, especially
    Sprint. Verizon continues to be top-ranked by independent surveys, in
    terms of coverage and customer service. JD Power' and Consumer Report's
    surveys have a big influence on buying behavior for many consumers.


    CDMA versus GSM
    ---------------
    Sprint does not break out CDMA versus iDEN net additions, but analysts
    believe that CDMA represents 85-90% of net additions, and 75-80% of
    total subscribers. Using the 85% estimate, Sprint and Verizon added
    2.395 million CDMA customers, while Cingular and T-Mobile added 2.150
    million GSM customers. This continues the long term trend in the U.S.,
    where CDMA continues to outpace GSM in new additions, as well as having
    a larger market share. Eliminating iDEN (using the 75% number), CDMA has
    a 54% U.S. market share, while GSM has a 46% market share, but the trend
    continues to be in favor of CDMA. In reality, the CDMA market share is
    slightly higher, because the fifth and sixth largest carriers also use
    CDMA, and because the more conservative estimates of Sprint’s iDEN
    customers was used.



    Raw Numbers
    -----------
    Market Share
    ------------

    1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006
    ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
    Cingular 32.10% 31.73% 31.22% 30.97% 30.58% 30.62%
    Sprint 27.33% 27.31% 27.23% 27.25% 27.95% 27.62%
    T-Mobile 11.66% 11.81% 12.12% 12.42% 12.44% 12.48%
    Verizon 28.92% 29.15% 29.43% 29.36% 29.04% 29.28%

    Analysis: Only Verizon is increasing their market share. Cingular and
    T-Mobile are flat, Sprint is in a steep decline.


    Subscribers (Millions)
    ----------------------

    1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006
    ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
    Cingular 50.5 51.6 52.3 54.1 55.8 57.3
    Sprint 43 44.4 45.61 47.6 51* 51.7
    T-Mobile 18.34 19.2 20.3 21.7 22.7 23.35
    Verizon 45.5 47.4 49.3 51.3 53 54.8

    *Includes 2.1 million subscribers from affiliates acquired.

    Analysis: Cingular is likely to remain in the number one spot for at
    least another year. Verizon was expected to pass Cingular in late 2006,
    but Radio Shack’s change from Verizon to Cingular, and Sprint’s failure
    to maintain it’s level of acquisitions from Cingular, mean that it’ll be
    2007 before Verizon passes Cingular, if each carrier continues the same
    pace of net additions.


    Net Additions (Millions)
    ------------------------

    2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006
    ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
    Cingular 1.1 0.7 1.8 1.7 1.5
    Sprint 1.4 1.215 1.985 3.4* 0.7
    T-Mobile 0.86 1.1 1.4 1.0 0.65
    Verizon 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.8

    *Includes 2.1 million subscribers from affiliates acquired.

    Analysis: Only Verizon is increasing the number of net additions.


    Market Share Change
    -------------------

    2Q-3Q 2005 3Q-4Q 2005 4Q 05-1Q 06 1Q 05-2Q 06
    ---------- ---------- ----------- -----------
    Cingular -0.51% -0.25% -0.39% 0.04%
    Sprint -0.08% 0.02% 0.70% -0.32%
    T-Mobile 0.31% 0.30% 0.02% 0.04%
    Verizon 0.28% -0.07% -0.32% 0.24%

    Analysis: Market share changes slowly. Only Verizon has a statistically
    significant increase in market share. Cingular and T-Mobile are flat,
    Sprint is in a steep decline.



    ARPU ($)
    --------

    1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006
    ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
    Cingular 49.59 50.43 49.65 48.86 48.48 48.84
    Sprint 61.00 62.00 65.00 63.00 62.00 61.00
    T-Mobile 54.00 54.00 53.00 52.00 51.00 August 10
    Verizon 49.03 50.34 50.13 49.36 48.67 49.71

    Analysis: Sprint’s ARPU continues its slow decline as Nextel customers
    migrate to lower cost CDMA plans, and as iDEN additions fall. Verizon
    managed over a $1 increase in ARPU, a significant rise, while Cingular
    ARPU rose a modest 36¢.


    Churn
    -----

    1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006
    ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
    Cingular 2.2% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7%
    Sprint 2.5% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1%
    T-Mobile 2.3% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.1% August 10
    Verizon 1.3% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.1%

    Verizon continues to lead the industry, by a wide margin, in terms of
    low churn. The number one reason that subscribers leave a network is
    coverage issues, so Verizon’s investment in its network has paid off
    handsomely. Verizon is acknowledged by independent sources as having the
    best network in the U.S., in almost every region.



    See More: Market Share Report, 2Q2006 Verizon Up, Sprint Down, Cingular & T-MobileFlat




  2. #2
    Thomas T. Veldhouse
    Guest

    Re: Market Share Report, 2Q2006 Verizon Up, Sprint Down, Cingular & T-Mobile Flat

    In alt.cellular.cingular SMS <[email protected]> wrote:
    > Market Share
    > ------------
    >
    > 1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006
    > ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
    > Cingular 32.10% 31.73% 31.22% 30.97% 30.58% 30.62%
    > Sprint 27.33% 27.31% 27.23% 27.25% 27.95% 27.62%
    > T-Mobile 11.66% 11.81% 12.12% 12.42% 12.44% 12.48%
    > Verizon 28.92% 29.15% 29.43% 29.36% 29.04% 29.28%


    I think that there should be an "Other" category, as market share is only
    being considered as including that top four carriers. In Minnesota, for
    instance, QWest is a player with some market share (and CDMA based if you care
    to know this). Spread about across the national market, there should be an
    other category which lumps in all "non-big 4" wireless customers. I susect
    that it is a couple of percent or more.

    --
    Thomas T. Veldhouse
    Key Fingerprint: 2DB9 813F F510 82C2 E1AE 34D0 D69D 1EDC D5EC AED1





  3. #3
    SMS
    Guest

    Re: Market Share Report, 2Q2006 Verizon Up, Sprint Down, Cingular& T-Mobile Flat

    Thomas T. Veldhouse wrote:
    > In alt.cellular.cingular SMS <[email protected]> wrote:
    >> Market Share
    >> ------------
    >>
    >> 1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006
    >> ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
    >> Cingular 32.10% 31.73% 31.22% 30.97% 30.58% 30.62%
    >> Sprint 27.33% 27.31% 27.23% 27.25% 27.95% 27.62%
    >> T-Mobile 11.66% 11.81% 12.12% 12.42% 12.44% 12.48%
    >> Verizon 28.92% 29.15% 29.43% 29.36% 29.04% 29.28%

    >
    > I think that there should be an "Other" category, as market share is only
    > being considered as including that top four carriers. In Minnesota, for
    > instance, QWest is a player with some market share (and CDMA based if you care
    > to know this). Spread about across the national market, there should be an
    > other category which lumps in all "non-big 4" wireless customers. I susect
    > that it is a couple of percent or more.


    Qwest has less than one million customers, so I don't think I'll include
    them. Alltel and US Cellular (5th and 6th) I may add. However U.S.
    Cellular is way behind in filing their results, they just reported
    4Q2005 at the end of July.



  4. #4
    Nessnet
    Guest

    Re: Market Share Report, 2Q2006 Verizon Up, Sprint Down, Cingular & T-Mobile Flat

    If I remember right, Qwest divested themselves of infrastructure.
    It is a virtual carrier - reselling Sprint.



    "Thomas T. Veldhouse" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:[email protected]...
    >
    > I think that there should be an "Other" category, as market share is only
    > being considered as including that top four carriers. In Minnesota, for
    > instance, QWest is a player with some market share (and CDMA based if you care
    > to know this). Spread about across the national market, there should be an
    > other category which lumps in all "non-big 4" wireless customers. I susect
    > that it is a couple of percent or more.
    >
    > --
    > Thomas T. Veldhouse
    > Key Fingerprint: 2DB9 813F F510 82C2 E1AE 34D0 D69D 1EDC D5EC AED1
    >
    >






  5. #5
    Scott
    Guest

    Re: Market Share Report, 2Q2006 Verizon Up, Sprint Down, Cingular & T-Mobile Flat


    "Thomas T. Veldhouse" <[email protected]> wrote in message
    news:[email protected]...
    > In alt.cellular.cingular SMS <[email protected]> wrote:
    >> Market Share
    >> ------------
    >>
    >> 1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006
    >> ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
    >> Cingular 32.10% 31.73% 31.22% 30.97% 30.58% 30.62%
    >> Sprint 27.33% 27.31% 27.23% 27.25% 27.95% 27.62%
    >> T-Mobile 11.66% 11.81% 12.12% 12.42% 12.44% 12.48%
    >> Verizon 28.92% 29.15% 29.43% 29.36% 29.04% 29.28%

    >
    > I think that there should be an "Other" category, as market share is only
    > being considered as including that top four carriers. In Minnesota, for
    > instance, QWest is a player with some market share (and CDMA based if you
    > care
    > to know this). Spread about across the national market, there should be
    > an
    > other category which lumps in all "non-big 4" wireless customers. I
    > susect
    > that it is a couple of percent or more.
    >
    >
    >

    Qwest is a Sprint reseller.





  6. #6
    Thomas T. Veldhouse
    Guest

    Re: Market Share Report, 2Q2006 Verizon Up, Sprint Down, Cingular & T-Mobile Flat

    In alt.cellular.cingular SMS <[email protected]> wrote:
    > Thomas T. Veldhouse wrote:
    >> In alt.cellular.cingular SMS <[email protected]> wrote:
    >>> Market Share
    >>> ------------
    >>>
    >>> 1Q2005 2Q2005 3Q2005 4Q2005 1Q2006 2Q2006
    >>> ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
    >>> Cingular 32.10% 31.73% 31.22% 30.97% 30.58% 30.62%
    >>> Sprint 27.33% 27.31% 27.23% 27.25% 27.95% 27.62%
    >>> T-Mobile 11.66% 11.81% 12.12% 12.42% 12.44% 12.48%
    >>> Verizon 28.92% 29.15% 29.43% 29.36% 29.04% 29.28%

    >>
    >> I think that there should be an "Other" category, as market share is only
    >> being considered as including that top four carriers. In Minnesota, for
    >> instance, QWest is a player with some market share (and CDMA based if you care
    >> to know this). Spread about across the national market, there should be an
    >> other category which lumps in all "non-big 4" wireless customers. I susect
    >> that it is a couple of percent or more.

    >
    > Qwest has less than one million customers, so I don't think I'll include
    > them. Alltel and US Cellular (5th and 6th) I may add. However U.S.
    > Cellular is way behind in filing their results, they just reported
    > 4Q2005 at the end of July.


    I wasn't talking about QWest in particular. I mean to combine all other
    subscribers in the country [i.e. QWest, Midwest, Dobson, Alltel, US Cellular,
    etc] as the "Other" category.

    --
    Thomas T. Veldhouse
    Key Fingerprint: 2DB9 813F F510 82C2 E1AE 34D0 D69D 1EDC D5EC AED1





  7. #7
    Thomas T. Veldhouse
    Guest

    Re: Market Share Report, 2Q2006 Verizon Up, Sprint Down, Cingular & T-Mobile Flat

    In alt.cellular.cingular Nessnet <[email protected]> wrote:
    > If I remember right, Qwest divested themselves of infrastructure.
    > It is a virtual carrier - reselling Sprint.


    No. I did some asking around recently and apparently they own their own
    infrastructure still but there is an agreement to use Sprint for National
    coverage for bundling purposes. Also, they did sell some hardware off in
    Montana if I recall, some of which Sprint picked up. I know that some of the
    towers west of Minneapolis announce themselves as QWest still. I could be
    sketchy on the details, but that is my understanding. Please correct me if I
    am wrong.

    --
    Thomas T. Veldhouse
    Key Fingerprint: 2DB9 813F F510 82C2 E1AE 34D0 D69D 1EDC D5EC AED1





  8. #8
    Nessnet
    Guest

    Re: Market Share Report, 2Q2006 Verizon Up, Sprint Down, Cingular & T-Mobile Flat

    They, (Qwest) won licenses in a few markets - Seattle MSA being one of them.
    The fired up a system and it was on the air and was being actively sold.
    It isn't anymore. Not for awhile now.

    At least here, they no longer operate the infrastructure. If I remember, it was
    sold off to either VZW or Sprint.

    They totally resell Sprint here - I thought it was all over, maybe not...


    "Thomas T. Veldhouse" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:cSHAg.25284$%[email protected]...
    > In alt.cellular.cingular Nessnet <[email protected]> wrote:
    >> If I remember right, Qwest divested themselves of infrastructure.
    >> It is a virtual carrier - reselling Sprint.

    >
    > No. I did some asking around recently and apparently they own their own
    > infrastructure still but there is an agreement to use Sprint for National
    > coverage for bundling purposes. Also, they did sell some hardware off in
    > Montana if I recall, some of which Sprint picked up. I know that some of the
    > towers west of Minneapolis announce themselves as QWest still. I could be
    > sketchy on the details, but that is my understanding. Please correct me if I
    > am wrong.
    >
    > --
    > Thomas T. Veldhouse
    > Key Fingerprint: 2DB9 813F F510 82C2 E1AE 34D0 D69D 1EDC D5EC AED1
    >
    >






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