Apple's iPhone casts big shadow on cell industry

http://www.chicagotribune.com/techno..._0624jun24,1,7
51030.story?page=2&coll=chi-technologylocal-hed

Apple's iPhone casts big shadow on cell industry
If the device -- a melding of phone, Web browser and music and video player
-- is a hit, analysts say it will cut into market share of major
phonemakers, including Schaumburg-based Motorola


By Mike Hughlett
Tribune staff reporter

June 24, 2007

As if struggling cell phone-maker Motorola Inc. doesn't have enough to
worry about: Here comes the iPhone, heir to the mighty iPod, brainchild of
tech golden boy Steve Jobs -- and riding a tidal wave of hype to boot.

Due in U.S. stores Friday, the iPhone promises to stir up the mobile phone
business. Apple Inc.'s first phone isn't expected to take much business
from Schaumburg-based Motorola or anyone else in the short term, but it
will change the industry landscape nonetheless, analysts say.

"It will not be a financial disrupter, but it will be a psychological
disrupter, a research and development disrupter," said Roger Entner, senior
vice president of IAG Research's communications sector. "That's because
everybody will say [to competitors like Motorola], 'Why can't you do
that?'"

If Apple succeeds, it might be financial disrupter in the long term, too.
If it ultimately rolls out cheaper versions of the iPhone -- as it did with
the iPod -- it could eat into the market share of major phonemakers such as
Motorola, some analysts say.

The iPhone -- a melding of phone, Web browser and music and video player --
will hit the shelves at a heady $499 to $599, with the latter sporting
twice the storage space (8 gigabytes). The device will be available through
AT&T and Apple retail stores and Web sites.

Apple has been transformed over the past few years from a boutique
computer-maker to a consumer electronics giant, courtesy of the now
ubiquitous iPod. The company has sold 100 million of the devices, capturing
roughly 70 percent of the portable music player market.

But while Apple essentially built the MP3 player market, the mobile phone
industry is an entirely different animal.

It's dominated globally by Finland-based Nokia, which has a nearly 36
percent market share, with Motorola second at about 17 percent. In the
U.S., Motorola is still market-share king, despite the weakness in its cell
phone business over the past nine months.

Given that the U.S. is ground zero for the iPhone, Motorola could stand to
be hit harder than other phonemakers if it succeeds, analysts say. Motorola
executives interviewed last week didn't seem worried, though they wouldn't
likely let on if they were.

"Really, the iPhone benefits the entire industry," said Brian Stech,
director of global marketing for Motorola's phone division. That's because
the iPhone will bring more consumer attention to "multimedia" phones, and
Motorola has strong offerings in that space, too, he said.

Motorola and other phonemakers have been stuffing their wares with
Web-browsing and music- and video-playing capabilities. But U.S. consumers
still don't seem to choose their phones based on such features.

"I don't think many people go out and buy a phone and say, 'I'm going for
the music part of it, I'm going for the video part of it,'" said Neil
Strother, a wireless industry analyst at Jupiter Research. But if the
iPhone succeeds, such multimedia phones should really take root, spurring
more innovation, too, at established phonemakers, he said.

Audience may be limited

Apple geeks will be queuing up for the device, waiting to get their hands
on its advanced touch-screen technology and surf the Web on its big
3.5-inch screen. But the phone's steep price will initially limit its
audience to tech enthusiasts and wealthier consumers.

That's the conclusion of recent survey of online mobile phone shoppers by
IDC, a market research firm. IDC found that 10 percent of those surveyed
were interested in the iPhone at $499 and above, a number that jumped to 18
percent if the device was priced under $299.

Also, IDC found that the cost of switching wireless carriers will work
against the iPhone. Since it's available only through a calling plan at
AT&T, customers who break contracts with their current networks will have
to pony up termination fees of around $150.

Apple seems aware that the higher price will limit the phone's market --
initially at least. Jobs has said he expects to sell 10 million iPhones by
the end of 2008, which would barely give Apple 1 percent of the global cell
phone market.

Seeking 'mind share'

Initially, Apple is going after "mind share," not market share, said John
Jackson, a wireless industry analyst at the Yankee Group. But eventually,
Jackson and other analysts are looking for Apple to broaden its iPhone
offerings to include stripped down -- but cheaper -- devices.

In other words, they're looking for Apple to do what it did with the iPod,
where prices vary by device size and storage capacity. The iPod Shuffle can
be had for $79; the iPod Nano starts at $149; and an iPod with 80 gigabytes
of storage goes for $349.

"When the iPhone Nano comes out at $120, everyone is in big trouble,"
Jackson said.

The life cycle of Motorola's famous Razr phone offers a potential parallel.
It was launched in November 2004 at $499. But Motorola didn't really gain
big sales volume -- and a boost in its market share -- until the Razr's
retail price was cut to $199 and eventually $99.

Eventually that price-cutting went too far: As the Razr's price dropped to
$50 and below, it began cannibalizing sales of the Krzr, Motorola's
higher-priced follow-up to the Razr. Apple could face a similar risk if it
follows a Nano/Shuffle-type strategy with the iPhone, said Chris Hazelton,
a wireless industry analyst at IDC.

The iPhone is being marketed more as a super-iPod than as a phone. "At a
lower price, the iPhone could compete with the iPod," taking sales from the
latter, Hazelton said.

Another possible hindrance for Apple is the nature of its agreement with
AT&T, he said. AT&T gave Apple an unprecedented amount of say in how the
iPhone will be sold and what the phone will feature; Motorola and other
carriers, accustomed to obeying carrier dictates, would likely be envious.

But Apple has also given AT&T a five-year exclusive deal to sell the phone,
analysts say. Exclusive deals rarely run more than one year. Phonemakers
want to build market share by selling through multiple carriers. "AT&T gave
a lot, but so did Apple," Hazelton said.

The Yankee Group's Jackson said that AT&T's main rival networks -- Sprint
and Verizon -- may face a bigger threat from the iPhone than phonemakers
such as Motorola. That's because AT&T's approach to selling music is
different than Sprint's and Verizon's.

Sprint and Verizon sell digital music through their own stores: Tunes are
downloaded over their networks for a fee. AT&T didn't build its own store,
instead partnering with major online brands such as Napster and Yahoo to
sell music.

Now, with the iPhone, Cingular will also allow customers to directly
download songs from iTunes into their phones, a sort of end-run around a
carrier-based music service. "This is really Apple versus Sprint and
Verizon," Jackson said.

----------

[email protected]

---

› See More: Apple's iPhone casts big shadow on cell industry

On Tue, 26 Jun 2007 04:00:01 -0700, Lon wrote
(in article <[email protected]>):

> http://www.chicagotribune.com/techno..._0624jun24,1,7
> 51030.story?page=2&coll=chi-technologylocal-hed
>
> Apple's iPhone casts big shadow on cell industry
> If the device -- a melding of phone, Web browser and music and video player
> -- is a hit, analysts say it will cut into market share of major
> phonemakers, including Schaumburg-based Motorola
>
>
> By Mike Hughlett
> Tribune staff reporter
>
> June 24, 2007
>
> As if struggling cell phone-maker Motorola Inc. doesn't have enough to
> worry about: Here comes the iPhone, heir to the mighty iPod, brainchild of
> tech golden boy Steve Jobs -- and riding a tidal wave of hype to boot.
>
> Due in U.S. stores Friday, the iPhone promises to stir up the mobile phone
> business. Apple Inc.'s first phone isn't expected to take much business
> from Schaumburg-based Motorola or anyone else in the short term, but it
> will change the industry landscape nonetheless, analysts say.
>
> "It will not be a financial disrupter, but it will be a psychological
> disrupter, a research and development disrupter," said Roger Entner, senior
> vice president of IAG Research's communications sector. "That's because
> everybody will say [to competitors like Motorola], 'Why can't you do
> that?'"
>
> If Apple succeeds, it might be financial disrupter in the long term, too.
> If it ultimately rolls out cheaper versions of the iPhone -- as it did with
> the iPod -- it could eat into the market share of major phonemakers such as
> Motorola, some analysts say.
>
> The iPhone -- a melding of phone, Web browser and music and video player --
> will hit the shelves at a heady $499 to $599, with the latter sporting
> twice the storage space (8 gigabytes). The device will be available through
> AT&T and Apple retail stores and Web sites.
>
> Apple has been transformed over the past few years from a boutique
> computer-maker to a consumer electronics giant, courtesy of the now
> ubiquitous iPod. The company has sold 100 million of the devices, capturing
> roughly 70 percent of the portable music player market.
>
> But while Apple essentially built the MP3 player market, the mobile phone
> industry is an entirely different animal.
>
> It's dominated globally by Finland-based Nokia, which has a nearly 36
> percent market share, with Motorola second at about 17 percent. In the
> U.S., Motorola is still market-share king, despite the weakness in its cell
> phone business over the past nine months.
>
> Given that the U.S. is ground zero for the iPhone, Motorola could stand to
> be hit harder than other phonemakers if it succeeds, analysts say. Motorola
> executives interviewed last week didn't seem worried, though they wouldn't
> likely let on if they were.
>
> "Really, the iPhone benefits the entire industry," said Brian Stech,
> director of global marketing for Motorola's phone division. That's because
> the iPhone will bring more consumer attention to "multimedia" phones, and
> Motorola has strong offerings in that space, too, he said.
>
> Motorola and other phonemakers have been stuffing their wares with
> Web-browsing and music- and video-playing capabilities. But U.S. consumers
> still don't seem to choose their phones based on such features.
>
> "I don't think many people go out and buy a phone and say, 'I'm going for
> the music part of it, I'm going for the video part of it,'" said Neil
> Strother, a wireless industry analyst at Jupiter Research. But if the
> iPhone succeeds, such multimedia phones should really take root, spurring
> more innovation, too, at established phonemakers, he said.
>
> Audience may be limited
>
> Apple geeks will be queuing up for the device, waiting to get their hands
> on its advanced touch-screen technology and surf the Web on its big
> 3.5-inch screen. But the phone's steep price will initially limit its
> audience to tech enthusiasts and wealthier consumers.
>
> That's the conclusion of recent survey of online mobile phone shoppers by
> IDC, a market research firm. IDC found that 10 percent of those surveyed
> were interested in the iPhone at $499 and above, a number that jumped to 18
> percent if the device was priced under $299.
>
> Also, IDC found that the cost of switching wireless carriers will work
> against the iPhone. Since it's available only through a calling plan at
> AT&T, customers who break contracts with their current networks will have
> to pony up termination fees of around $150.
>
> Apple seems aware that the higher price will limit the phone's market --
> initially at least. Jobs has said he expects to sell 10 million iPhones by
> the end of 2008, which would barely give Apple 1 percent of the global cell
> phone market.
>
> Seeking 'mind share'
>
> Initially, Apple is going after "mind share," not market share, said John
> Jackson, a wireless industry analyst at the Yankee Group. But eventually,
> Jackson and other analysts are looking for Apple to broaden its iPhone
> offerings to include stripped down -- but cheaper -- devices.
>
> In other words, they're looking for Apple to do what it did with the iPod,
> where prices vary by device size and storage capacity. The iPod Shuffle can
> be had for $79; the iPod Nano starts at $149; and an iPod with 80 gigabytes
> of storage goes for $349.
>
> "When the iPhone Nano comes out at $120, everyone is in big trouble,"
> Jackson said.
>
> The life cycle of Motorola's famous Razr phone offers a potential parallel.
> It was launched in November 2004 at $499. But Motorola didn't really gain
> big sales volume -- and a boost in its market share -- until the Razr's
> retail price was cut to $199 and eventually $99.
>
> Eventually that price-cutting went too far: As the Razr's price dropped to
> $50 and below, it began cannibalizing sales of the Krzr, Motorola's
> higher-priced follow-up to the Razr. Apple could face a similar risk if it
> follows a Nano/Shuffle-type strategy with the iPhone, said Chris Hazelton,
> a wireless industry analyst at IDC.
>
> The iPhone is being marketed more as a super-iPod than as a phone. "At a
> lower price, the iPhone could compete with the iPod," taking sales from the
> latter, Hazelton said.
>
> Another possible hindrance for Apple is the nature of its agreement with
> AT&T, he said. AT&T gave Apple an unprecedented amount of say in how the
> iPhone will be sold and what the phone will feature; Motorola and other
> carriers, accustomed to obeying carrier dictates, would likely be envious.
>
> But Apple has also given AT&T a five-year exclusive deal to sell the phone,
> analysts say. Exclusive deals rarely run more than one year. Phonemakers
> want to build market share by selling through multiple carriers. "AT&T gave
> a lot, but so did Apple," Hazelton said.
>
> The Yankee Group's Jackson said that AT&T's main rival networks -- Sprint
> and Verizon -- may face a bigger threat from the iPhone than phonemakers
> such as Motorola. That's because AT&T's approach to selling music is
> different than Sprint's and Verizon's.
>
> Sprint and Verizon sell digital music through their own stores: Tunes are
> downloaded over their networks for a fee. AT&T didn't build its own store,
> instead partnering with major online brands such as Napster and Yahoo to
> sell music.
>
> Now, with the iPhone, Cingular will also allow customers to directly
> download songs from iTunes into their phones, a sort of end-run around a
> carrier-based music service. "This is really Apple versus Sprint and
> Verizon," Jackson said.
>
> ----------
>
> [email protected]
>
>

I guess these guys HAVE to write about something, even if what they are
writing about is as obvious as this. How big is the cellphone market again?
200 million? 500 million? a Billion? I dunno but its huge. So, its a no
brainer to say that the iPhone won't turn the market on it's ear - especially
since most cellphones in the world are really cheap ones -that's where the
numbers are. What the iPhone will do is sell like hot cakes. They'll
literally fly off of Apple's and ATT's shelves. I predict that Apple won't be
able to keep up with the orders. That's the significance of iPhone. It will
make Apple even richer.

George Graves <[email protected]> wrote:

> I guess these guys HAVE to write about something, even if what they are
> writing about is as obvious as this. How big is the cellphone market again?
> 200 million? 500 million? a Billion? I dunno but its huge. So, its a no
> brainer to say that the iPhone won't turn the market on it's ear - especially
> since most cellphones in the world are really cheap ones -that's where the
> numbers are. What the iPhone will do is sell like hot cakes. They'll
> literally fly off of Apple's and ATT's shelves. I predict that Apple won't be
> able to keep up with the orders. That's the significance of iPhone. It will
> make Apple even richer.

correct George... the iPhone nano or iPhone mini is just around the
corner and it's going to crush many a cell phone company like a bug. The
cell industry is incredibly weak in comparison to the computer industry.
They haven't had any serious competition in decades.

The iPhone could take 10-15% of the revenue market in the first year,
10-15% of the unit volume in year 2, it just depends on how fast Apple
wants to crush cell companies.

Should be fun to watch.

On Tue, 26 Jun 2007 11:44:17 -0700, Oxford wrote
(in article
<[email protected]>):

> George Graves <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> I guess these guys HAVE to write about something, even if what they are
>> writing about is as obvious as this. How big is the cellphone market again?
>> 200 million? 500 million? a Billion? I dunno but its huge. So, its a no
>> brainer to say that the iPhone won't turn the market on it's ear -
>> especially
>> since most cellphones in the world are really cheap ones -that's where the
>> numbers are. What the iPhone will do is sell like hot cakes. They'll
>> literally fly off of Apple's and ATT's shelves. I predict that Apple won't
>> be
>> able to keep up with the orders. That's the significance of iPhone. It will
>> make Apple even richer.
>
> correct George... the iPhone nano or iPhone mini is just around the
> corner and it's going to crush many a cell phone company like a bug. The
> cell industry is incredibly weak in comparison to the computer industry.
> They haven't had any serious competition in decades.
>
> The iPhone could take 10-15% of the revenue market in the first year,
> 10-15% of the unit volume in year 2, it just depends on how fast Apple
> wants to crush cell companies.
>
> Should be fun to watch.

I'll say! Wish I could really justify an iPhone, But I can't. Hell, I might
buy one anyway :-)

Oxford <[email protected]> wrote:
> George Graves <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> I guess these guys HAVE to write about something, even if what they
>> are writing about is as obvious as this. How big is the cellphone
>> market again? 200 million? 500 million? a Billion? I dunno but its
>> huge. So, its a no brainer to say that the iPhone won't turn the
>> market on it's ear - especially since most cellphones in the world
>> are really cheap ones -that's where the numbers are. What the iPhone
>> will do is sell like hot cakes. They'll literally fly off of Apple's
>> and ATT's shelves. I predict that Apple won't be able to keep up
>> with the orders. That's the significance of iPhone. It will make
>> Apple even richer.

> correct George... the iPhone nano or iPhone mini is just around the corner

Sure.

> and it's going to crush many a cell phone company like a bug.

Nope.

> The cell industry is incredibly weak in comparison to the computer industry.

Another pig ignorant fantasys.

> They haven't had any serious competition in decades.

Corse they have.

> The iPhone could take 10-15% of the revenue market in the first year,

Not a chance.

> 10-15% of the unit volume in year 2,

Not a chance.

> it just depends on how fast Apple wants to crush cell companies.

Just another of your pathetic little pig ignorant drug crazed fantasys.

> Should be fun to watch.

Yep, clowns like you face down in the mud, as always.

In article <[email protected]>,
Rod Speed <[email protected]> wrote:
>Oxford <[email protected]> wrote:
.....
>> The cell industry is incredibly weak in comparison to the computer industry.
>> They haven't had any serious competition in decades.
>
>Corse they have.

Competition among current phone makers and phone companies
has been strong for some time. The iphone promises through
a combination of features, design, and marketing to fundamentally
change the cell phone landscape. The parallels to Apple's entrance
into the mobile music market are striking. And their current success
with the ipod gives them leverage in this new market. They might
dominate this new market. But in any case, it seems likely that
the cell phone business will be changed.

Daniel Packman <[email protected]> wrote
> Rod Speed <[email protected]> wrote
>> Oxford <[email protected]> wrote

>>> The cell industry is incredibly weak in comparison to the computer
>>> industry. They haven't had any serious competition in decades.

>> Corse they have.

> Competition among current phone makers and
> phone companies has been strong for some time.

And leaves the minimal competition in the computer industry for dead too.

> The iphone promises through a combination of features, design,
> and marketing to fundamentally change the cell phone landscape.

Nope, there's plenty with the same approach
now, even the lack of any real keys.

> The parallels to Apple's entrance into the mobile music market are striking.

The differences are striking too. Virtually everyone already has a phone,
many already have phones which are also media players and cameras.

It was quite different when the ipod showed up, most didnt have a media player then.

> And their current success with the ipod gives them leverage in this new market.

But the market is very different when you need a telco too and
when they have chosen to operate exclusively with just one of the
networks, and that doesnt have adequate coverage for some.

And then there's the phone plans on offer too. That isnt something that was
relevant with the ipod, you could just dump your CDs into if it you wanted to.

> They might dominate this new market.

I doubt they'll even dominate the high end phone market
and they certainly wont dominate the low end.

> But in any case, it seems likely that the cell phone business will be changed.

Nope, there are plenty of high end phone that can do what the
iphone does. And much more too, particularly run 3rd party apps.

"Rod Speed" <[email protected]> wrote:

> > correct George... the iPhone nano or iPhone mini is just around the corner
>
> Sure.

so thanks for confirming you know zero about how Apple operates, they
start on the high end and work down and have done it for decades.

the iphone should sell 40 million or so units the first year, adding an
iPhone mini would make that iPhone total numbers hit 100 million or more.

> > and it's going to crush many a cell phone company like a bug.
>
> Nope.

Hee he, you don't have any clue do you. Apple is known to crush
industries. The iPhone will be another feather in their cap.

> > The cell industry is incredibly weak in comparison to the computer industry.
>
> Another pig ignorant fantasys.

Why is there no innovation then? Please explain that one...

> > They haven't had any serious competition in decades.
>
> Corse they have.

Like what? when has an iPhone level product ever entered the market?
Never. The cell phone industry is stagnate, weak and unprepared for
Friday.

> > The iPhone could take 10-15% of the revenue market in the first year,
>
> Not a chance.

At at average price of $550 and 40 million units, yep!

> > 10-15% of the unit volume in year 2,
>
> Not a chance.

100 million in year 2 is 10%, do the math.

> > it just depends on how fast Apple wants to crush cell companies.
>
> Just another of your pathetic little pig ignorant drug crazed fantasys.
>
> > Should be fun to watch.
>
> Yep, clowns like you face down in the mud, as always.

You're scare of Apple's iPhone, I can tell.

"Rod Speed" <[email protected]> wrote:

> > And their current success with the ipod gives them leverage in this new
> > market.
>
> But the market is very different when you need a telco too and
> when they have chosen to operate exclusively with just one of the
> networks, and that doesnt have adequate coverage for some.

but the need for a "telco" is only temporary. Cell towers are dead ends,
VOIP wipes them out and is basically "free".

> And then there's the phone plans on offer too. That isnt something that was
> relevant with the ipod, you could just dump your CDs into if it you wanted
> to.

But you don't need a data plan for many of the iphone features, so just
learn that once Skype is on the iPhone, (about 2 months) no need to pay
ATT a single penny. Then the iPhone becomes a "free" phone to talk to
anyone in the world for "free". Like it should be.

Oxford <[email protected]> wrote
> Rod Speed <[email protected]> wrote

>>> And their current success with the ipod gives them leverage in this new market.

>> But the market is very different when you need a telco too and
>> when they have chosen to operate exclusively with just one of the
>> networks, and that doesnt have adequate coverage for some.

> but the need for a "telco" is only temporary.

Bet it isnt.

> Cell towers are dead ends, VOIP wipes them out and is basically "free".

Pity about the lack of WiFi in so much of the area most want to move in.

And if cell towers are dead ends, no point in getting an
iphone, you might as well just have a decent non phone
instead and avoid the 2 year contract cost with AT&T too.

>> And then there's the phone plans on offer too. That isnt
>> something that was relevant with the ipod, you could just
>> dump your CDs into if it you wanted to.

> But you don't need a data plan for many of the iphone features,

You do for voip tho.

> so just learn that once Skype is on the iPhone,
> (about 2 months) no need to pay ATT a single penny.

Wrong, you're locked into a 2 year contract with ATT.

> Then the iPhone becomes a "free" phone
> to talk to anyone in the world for "free".

Fantasy. Skype aint free.

> Like it should be.

Its nothing like that.

Oxford <[email protected]> wrote
> Rod Speed <[email protected]> wrote

>>> correct George... the iPhone nano or iPhone mini is just around the corner

>> Sure.

> so thanks for confirming you know zero about how Apple operates,

How odd that even I had noticed them doing that with the ipod.

> they start on the high end and work down and have done it for decades.

Irrelevant to your silly claim below.

> the iphone should sell 40 million or so units the first year, adding an iPhone
> mini would make that iPhone total numbers hit 100 million or more.

Just another of your pathetic little drug crazed fantasys.

>>> and it's going to crush many a cell phone company like a bug.

>> Nope.

> Hee he, you don't have any clue do you. Apple is known to crush industries.

They did that so well with MS eh ?

And with the PC hardware industrys too eh ?

They havent even managed to crush even a single media player manufacturer either.

> The iPhone will be another feather in their cap.

Sure, but thats nothing like your juvenile claims about crushing anyone.

>>> The cell industry is incredibly weak in comparison to the computer industry.

>> Another pig ignorant fantasy.

> Why is there no innovation then?

Just another of your pathetic little pig ignorant fantasys.

> Please explain that one...

Nothing to explain, you are just plain wrong.

>>> They haven't had any serious competition in decades.

>> Corse they have.

> Like what?

From the Koreans most recently.

> when has an iPhone level product ever entered the market?

There's plenty of high end phones that can do everything it can do.

> Never. The cell phone industry is stagnate, weak

Thanks for that completely superfluous proof that you have
never ever had a ****ing clue about anything at all, ever.

> and unprepared for Friday.

The cell phone industry will just yawn on Friday.

>>> The iPhone could take 10-15% of the revenue market in the first year,

>> Not a chance.

> At at average price of $550 and 40 million units, yep!

They aint gunn sell 40M units, child.

>>> 10-15% of the unit volume in year 2,

>> Not a chance.

> 100 million in year 2 is 10%, do the math.

Pity you just plucked that stupid number out of your arse, child.

>>> it just depends on how fast Apple wants to crush cell companies.

>> Just another of your pathetic little pig ignorant drug crazed fantasys.

>>> Should be fun to watch.

>> Yep, clowns like you face down in the mud, as always.

> You're scare of Apple's iPhone,

Nope, I welcome any decent innovative product with a decent design.

> I can tell.

All you can do is wank, child.

On 6/26/07 2:46 PM, in article [email protected], "Rod
Speed" <[email protected]> wrote:

> Oxford <[email protected]> wrote:
>> George Graves <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>> I guess these guys HAVE to write about something, even if what they
>>> are writing about is as obvious as this. How big is the cellphone
>>> market again? 200 million? 500 million? a Billion? I dunno but its
>>> huge. So, its a no brainer to say that the iPhone won't turn the
>>> market on it's ear - especially since most cellphones in the world
>>> are really cheap ones -that's where the numbers are. What the iPhone
>>> will do is sell like hot cakes. They'll literally fly off of Apple's
>>> and ATT's shelves. I predict that Apple won't be able to keep up
>>> with the orders. That's the significance of iPhone. It will make
>>> Apple even richer.
>
>> correct George... the iPhone nano or iPhone mini is just around the corner
>
> Sure.
>
>> and it's going to crush many a cell phone company like a bug.
>
> Nope.
>
>> The cell industry is incredibly weak in comparison to the computer industry.
>
> Another pig ignorant fantasys.
>
>> They haven't had any serious competition in decades.
>
> Corse they have.
>
>> The iPhone could take 10-15% of the revenue market in the first year,
>
> Not a chance.
>
>> 10-15% of the unit volume in year 2,
>
> Not a chance.
>
>> it just depends on how fast Apple wants to crush cell companies.
>
> Just another of your pathetic little pig ignorant drug crazed fantasys.
>
>> Should be fun to watch.
>
> Yep, clowns like you face down in the mud, as always.
>
>
You are so dense. You wouldn't see satire if it walked up and *****-slapped
your sorry ass.

George Kerby <[email protected]> wrote
> Rod Speed <[email protected]> wrote
>> Oxford <[email protected]> wrote
>>> George Graves <[email protected]> wrote

>>>> I guess these guys HAVE to write about something, even if what they
>>>> are writing about is as obvious as this. How big is the cellphone
>>>> market again? 200 million? 500 million? a Billion? I dunno but its
>>>> huge. So, its a no brainer to say that the iPhone won't turn the
>>>> market on it's ear - especially since most cellphones in the world
>>>> are really cheap ones -that's where the numbers are. What the
>>>> iPhone will do is sell like hot cakes. They'll literally fly off
>>>> of Apple's and ATT's shelves. I predict that Apple won't be able
>>>> to keep up with the orders. That's the significance of iPhone. It
>>>> will make Apple even richer.

>>> correct George... the iPhone nano or iPhone mini is just around the corner

>> Sure.

>>> and it's going to crush many a cell phone company like a bug.

>> Nope.

>>> The cell industry is incredibly weak in comparison to the computer industry.

>> Another pig ignorant fantasy.

>>> They haven't had any serious competition in decades.

>> Corse they have.

>>> The iPhone could take 10-15% of the revenue market in the first year,

>> Not a chance.

>>> 10-15% of the unit volume in year 2,

>> Not a chance.

>>> it just depends on how fast Apple wants to crush cell companies.

>> Just another of your pathetic little pig ignorant drug crazed fantasys.

>>> Should be fun to watch.

>> Yep, clowns like you face down in the mud, as always.

> You are so dense.

You in spades.

> You wouldn't see satire if it walked up and *****-slapped your sorry ass.

You wouldn't notice taking the piss of it bit you on your lard arse.

That last line was a dead giveaway, child.

Justin <[email protected]> wrote:

> > but the need for a "telco" is only temporary. Cell towers are dead ends,
> > VOIP wipes them out and is basically "free".
>
> You're high.

Nope, just examining the facts.


> >> And then there's the phone plans on offer too. That isnt something that was
> >> relevant with the ipod, you could just dump your CDs into if it you wanted
> >> to.
> >
> > But you don't need a data plan for many of the iphone features, so just
> > learn that once Skype is on the iPhone, (about 2 months) no need to pay
> > ATT a single penny. Then the iPhone becomes a "free" phone to talk to
> > anyone in the world for "free". Like it should be.
>
> Yep, like the FACT that there is no large area public wifi over what?
> 99% of the country?

But you are missing the point. Are you in 99% of the country at one
single time? No, you spend 94% of your waking life at home or at the
office, where 99% of modern people have open wireless, or protected but
under their control.

I know, I know it will take people like Rod longer to understand what
I'm saying, but it's still a fact that Wireless / 802.11 will replace
Cell Towers. Will it happen tomorrow, nope! but in the 10 year time
frame most Cell companies are "toast" unless they get to "free" calls
and $100 phones.

"Rod Speed" <[email protected]> wrote:

> > but the need for a "telco" is only temporary.
>
> Bet it isnt.

Check with us in 11 years, and your tune will say, "oh, I guess that
Oxford guy was right".

> > Cell towers are dead ends, VOIP wipes them out and is basically "free".
>
> Pity about the lack of WiFi in so much of the area most want to move in.

Do you live in the US? Just curious? or the back woods?

> And if cell towers are dead ends, no point in getting an
> iphone, you might as well just have a decent non phone
> instead and avoid the 2 year contract cost with AT&T too.

But an iPhone will allow for free phone calls within the year, most
"cell" phones won't.

> >> And then there's the phone plans on offer too. That isnt
> >> something that was relevant with the ipod, you could just
> >> dump your CDs into if it you wanted to.
>
> > But you don't need a data plan for many of the iphone features,
>
> You do for voip tho.

Not sure as of yet. VOIP would run in the Safari Browser as it sits now,
so there would be no need for "data" through ATT for that. That's all
pure TCP/IP / 802.11.

> > so just learn that once Skype is on the iPhone,
> > (about 2 months) no need to pay ATT a single penny.
>
> Wrong, you're locked into a 2 year contract with ATT.

Ah, but you can leave on day 1 for $175, so you aren't "locked in".

> > Then the iPhone becomes a "free" phone
> > to talk to anyone in the world for "free".
>
> Fantasy. Skype aint free.

Skype to Skype is free, so iPhone to iPhone would be free, sure if you
are talking to an old fashioned phone, you pay a small fee, or
international old fashioned phones, you pay a bit higher fee, but Skype
to Skype anywhere in the world, to Skype anywhere in the world is free.

> > Like it should be.
>
> Its nothing like that.

You'll learn.

-

And since you are too slow to understand large concepts as I discuss,
you've been Plonked!

Sorry, you just aren't rational.

-