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- 11-13-2003, 11:43 PM #1Steven M. ScharfGuest
The 3Q2003 statistics on market share, subscriber totals, subscriber
additions,
quarterly churn, and percentage changes from 2Q2003 are now available on
my web site at "http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics3q.htm"
These statistics come from the press releases of the wireless carriers.
Overview
----------
T-Mobile and Cingular have the highest churn rates, but AT&T and Sprint
are not far behind.
T-Mobile, Nextel, and Verizon continue to make impressive gains in market
share.
Cingular's market share is flat, but this is a big improvement, and
particularly
impressive since they are battling big time churn.
Cingular had the biggest percentage increase in the rate of increase in
subscriber
additions (versus 2Q2003 additions). Nextel, T-Mobile, and Verizon had small
percentage increases in the rate of increase in subscriber additions. AT&T
and
Sprint PCS saw big decreases in the rate of subscriber additions. This trend
is
important because a falling rate of subscriber additions means a loss in
market
share, even though the raw number of additions is still positive.
AT&T and Sprint PCS are losing market share big time.
Verizon and Nextel have very low churn rates. This makes
their subscriber additions push up their market share much
more easily than the carriers whose new additions also have
to cover large numbers of subscribers lost to churn.
Quarter to quarter churn rates decreased for Nextel, Sprint
and Verizon, increased for the other carriers.
These are the last statistics prior to number portability. If the
Morgan Stanley study proves to be correct, then there will
be big increases in churn during the 4th quarter, with pronounced
changes in market share. A newspaper story on the Morgan Stanley
report is at
"http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/147054_cellphone06.html"
Steve
CellAcademician
http://sfbacell.com (San Francisco Bay Area Cellular Comparison)
http://nyccell.com (New York City Cellular Comparison)
http://socalcell.com (Southern California Cellular Comparison)
› See More: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
- 11-14-2003, 12:44 AM #2Bill RadioGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
Steve,
Thanks for putting the data in a side-by-side comparison. It
made it easier to see what was really happening. One misleading
statistic (that they provide) is the change in the rate of
growth. For example, Verizon growth is phonomenal, over 1.3
million adds per quarter. To not increase that number by much
each quarter is not a big deal when they're already riding on the
crest of the highest wave in the ocean.
-Bill Radio
Western U.S. Wireless Reviews at:
http://www.MountainWireless.com
----- Original Message -----
From: "Steven M. Scharf" <[email protected]>
Newsgroups:
alt.cellular.sprintpcs,alt.cellular,alt.cellular.attws,alt.cellul
ar.cingular,alt.cellular.gsm.carriers.voicestream,alt.cellular.ve
rizon
Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2003 10:43 PM
Subject: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
> The 3Q2003 statistics on market share, subscriber totals,
subscriber
> additions,
> quarterly churn, and percentage changes from 2Q2003 are now
available on
> my web site at "http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics3q.htm"
>
- 11-14-2003, 02:10 AM #3Steven M. ScharfGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
"Bill Radio" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Steve,
> Thanks for putting the data in a side-by-side comparison. It
> made it easier to see what was really happening. One misleading
> statistic (that they provide) is the change in the rate of
> growth. For example, Verizon growth is phonomenal, over 1.3
> million adds per quarter. To not increase that number by much
> each quarter is not a big deal when they're already riding on the
> crest of the highest wave in the ocean.
Actually I had written a comment about this, then not included it,
stating that the steady percentage growth rates of Nextel and Verizon
were actually healthier than big swings (as Cingular has been
experiencing as they introduced expensive promotions to reverse their
subscriber losses). I didn't want this thread to degenerate into one
person claiming that such a statement was anti-Cingular, so I didn't
include it.
If the Morgan Stanley study is to be believed, and it appears to be
the first scientific study on the effects of LNP, then Verizon is poised
for even more explosive growth. Verizon believes this and is staffing
up in anticipation of millions of new subscribers.
- 11-15-2003, 04:55 AM #4Steven M. ScharfGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
"Steven M. Scharf" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> The 3Q2003 statistics on market share, subscriber totals, subscriber
> additions, quarterly churn, and percentage changes from 2Q2003 are
> now available on my web site at
"http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics3q.htm"
>
> These statistics come from the press releases of the wireless carriers.
I have now added ARPU to the statistics page. For Verizon I had to
calculate it based on quarterly revenue dividided by average number of
subscribers during the quarter, and I assumed that their subscriber adds
were linear over the quarter. Verizon doesn't provide precise ARPU
numbers, but my calculations matched their generalized statements on
ARPU.
> Steve
> CellAcademician
>
> http://sfbacell.com (San Francisco Bay Area Cellular Comparison)
> http://nyccell.com (New York City Cellular Comparison)
> http://socalcell.com (Southern California Cellular Comparison)
- 11-15-2003, 06:05 AM #5Nigel PoncewattleGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
"Steven M. Scharf" <[email protected]> wrote in
news:[email protected]:
> The 3Q2003 statistics on market share, subscriber totals, subscriber
> additions,
> quarterly churn, and percentage changes from 2Q2003 are now available
> on my web site at "http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics3q.htm"
Nice. I do expect some sort of change with Verizon and Sprint going to PTT
(push to talk) service. I know my employer is switching from Nextel to
Verizon for PTT because Nextel's coverage is so bad where we need it. For
example, in our telecommunication's room Nextel is dead. When a disaster
hits, quick communication is necessary. Having to step outside the room was
a hassle. Verizon works fine in it. They are also giving away free group
PTT this year.
Nextel's new nationwide PTT plans are confusing as heck too. There's an
extra charge for it, depending on who initiates the connection, but you can
get around that by sending an alert first, but the person initiating the
connection may not know you're out of local area and hence will get nicked
for the charge, etc, etc... Yeah, it might all be in one company, but
different departmental chargeback issues make petty things like this a big
deal.
Plus Verizon has unlimited nights/weekends. A nice perk for the employees
to use when not at work.
- 11-15-2003, 10:53 AM #6Steven M. ScharfGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
"Nigel Poncewattle" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> Nice. I do expect some sort of change with Verizon and Sprint going to PTT
> (push to talk) service. I know my employer is switching from Nextel to
> Verizon for PTT because Nextel's coverage is so bad where we need it. For
> example, in our telecommunication's room Nextel is dead. When a disaster
> hits, quick communication is necessary. Having to step outside the room
was
> a hassle. Verizon works fine in it. They are also giving away free group
> PTT this year.
>
> Nextel's new nationwide PTT plans are confusing as heck too. There's an
> extra charge for it, depending on who initiates the connection, but you
can
> get around that by sending an alert first, but the person initiating the
> connection may not know you're out of local area and hence will get nicked
> for the charge, etc, etc... Yeah, it might all be in one company, but
> different departmental chargeback issues make petty things like this a big
> deal.
>
> Plus Verizon has unlimited nights/weekends. A nice perk for the employees
> to use when not at work.
On the surface, Nextel would appear to have the most to lose from LNP,
but apparently this is not the case. According to a Morgan-Stanley poll,
the percentage of subscribers that will switch once LNP takes effect, that
would not have switched without LNP (and presumably they are not in a
contract) is:
AT&T 43%
Sprint PCS 37%
T-Mobile 28%
Cingular 27%
Nextel 20%
Verizon 16%
I'm really shocked at the AT&T number, but AT&T is very strong in the
corporate market, a place where people are more reluctant to change
phone numbers, so LNP finally frees these people. Also in the corporate
market coverage is often important. With AT&T you can get coverage
on TDMA but no data services, or poor coverage on GSM with all the
nifty features. Verizon is the only carrier offering good coverage AND
data services.
The report on this study is vague and doesn't even state the question that
they asked the consumers. I postulate that it had to be something like:
"who is your carrier now and when number portability is available will
you switch carriers and to whom?" Of course some of these people would
switch anyway and except for AT&T and Sprint, the numbers saying that
they will change are about equal to the annual churn rate.
- 11-15-2003, 01:31 PM #7AndyGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: "Steven M. Scharf" <[email protected]>
> Newsgroups:
> alt.cellular.sprintpcs,alt.cellular,alt.cellular.attws,alt.cellul
> ar.cingular,alt.cellular.gsm.carriers.voicestream,alt.cellular.ve
> rizon
> Sent: Thursday, November 13, 2003 10:43 PM
> Subject: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
>
>
> > The 3Q2003 statistics on market share, subscriber totals,
> subscriber
> > additions,
> > quarterly churn, and percentage changes from 2Q2003 are now
> available on
> > my web site at "http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics3q.htm"
> >
Is this side by side comparison going to be updated, as soon as the
next quarterly reports come out??
Anyways, thanks for that info!
- 11-15-2003, 06:44 PM #8Steven M. ScharfGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
"Andy" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> Is this side by side comparison going to be updated, as soon as the
> next quarterly reports come out??
Yes, but that will be in three months. T-Mobile typically reports
on the 2nd Thurday, two months after the quarter ends. I put up
the data right away, it's all in Excel ready to go when T-Mobile
releases their results.
Next quarter will be an anomaly of course, since LNP hits in 9 more
days. Everyone that has been waiting to switch, and who is not in a
contract, will likely do so during the 5 remaining weeks in the quarter.
Look for significant shifts in market share (anything more than 0.1% is
significant) and very high churn across the board. Then things will
settle down as people who want to switch, but are in contracts, wait
out their contracts. It'll be two years before the full effect of LNP is
known.
- 11-15-2003, 08:43 PM #9Al KleinGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
On Sun, 16 Nov 2003 00:44:36 GMT, "Steven M. Scharf"
<[email protected]> posted in alt.cellular.verizon:
>Next quarter will be an anomaly of course, since LNP hits in 9 more
>days. Everyone that has been waiting to switch, and who is not in a
>contract, will likely do so during the 5 remaining weeks in the quarter.
>Look for significant shifts in market share (anything more than 0.1% is
>significant) and very high churn across the board. Then things will
>settle down as people who want to switch, but are in contracts, wait
>out their contracts. It'll be two years before the full effect of LNP is
>known.
There'll be another big shift in May.
- 11-17-2003, 04:41 PM #10XFFGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
"Steven M. Scharf" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> The 3Q2003 statistics on market share, subscriber totals, subscriber
> additions,
> quarterly churn, and percentage changes from 2Q2003 are now available on
> my web site at "http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics3q.htm"
>
> These statistics come from the press releases of the wireless carriers.
Nice work Steven, but some of your numbers seem a little bit off.
Here are the official carrier-reported subscriber figures for Q3'03:
wireless carriers 03/03 06/03 09/03 12/03
================= ------------------------------
1. Verizon Wireless VZ/VOD 33.324 34.619 36.026
2. Cingular Wireless SBC/BLS 22.114 22.640 23.385
3. AT&T Wireless Services AWE 21.142 21.493 21.855
4. Sprint PCS PCS 18.243 18.83M 19.33M
direct 14.959 15.29M 15.48M
resale .590 .77M 1.06M
affiliate 2.694 2.77M 2.79M
5. Nextel Communications NXTL/NXTP 11.092 11.683 12.329
6. T-Mobile DT 10.837 11.443 12.113
7. ALLTEL AT 7.761 7.872 7.928
8. U.S. Cellular USM 4.240 4.343 4.268
9. Dobson Cellular Systems DCEL 1.411 1.565 1.579
Dobson Communications 718.9k 867.6k 877.8k
American Cellular 692.1k 697.5k 701.7k
10.Western Wireless WWCA 1.216 1.231 1.246
11.Rural Cellular Corporation RCCC 728.7k 739.0k 740.4k
12.Centennial Wireless CYCL 538.9k 540.9k 548.9k
13.Midwest Wireless -- ~~300k ~~340k
Note: you will need to view this with a fixed-width font or copy and
paste into Notepad.
- 11-17-2003, 10:08 PM #11XFFGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
[email protected] (XFF) wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
> "Steven M. Scharf" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>
> > The 3Q2003 statistics on market share, subscriber totals, subscriber
> > additions,
> > quarterly churn, and percentage changes from 2Q2003 are now available on
> > my web site at "http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics3q.htm"
> >
> > These statistics come from the press releases of the wireless carriers.
>
> Nice work Steven, but some of your numbers seem a little bit off.
> Here are the official carrier-reported subscriber figures for Q3'03:
Let's try this again. Apparently Google takes out TABs when posting...
wireless carriers 03/03 06/03 09/03 12/03
================= ------------------------------
1. Verizon Wireless VZ/VOD 33.324 34.619 36.026
2. Cingular Wireless SBC/BLS 22.114 22.640 23.385
3. AT&T Wireless Services AWE 21.142 21.493 21.855
4. Sprint PCS PCS 18.243 18.83M 19.33M
direct 14.959 15.29M 15.48M
resale .590 .77M 1.06M
affiliate 2.694 2.77M 2.79M
5. Nextel Communications NXTL/NXTP 11.092 11.683 12.329
6. T-Mobile DT 10.837 11.443 12.113
7. ALLTEL AT 7.761 7.872 7.928
8. U.S. Cellular USM 4.240 4.343 4.268
9. Dobson Cellular Systems DCEL 1.411 1.565 1.579
Dobson Communications 718.9k 867.6k 877.8k
American Cellular 692.1k 697.5k 701.7k
10.Western Wireless WWCA 1.216 1.231 1.246
11.Rural Cellular Corporation RCCC 728.7k 739.0k 740.4k
12.Centennial Wireless CYCL 538.9k 540.9k 548.9k
13.Midwest Wireless -- ~~300k ~~340k
- 11-17-2003, 11:31 PM #12About DakotaGuest
Re: 3Q2003 carrier statistics
XFF wrote:
> [email protected] (XFF) wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>
>>"Steven M. Scharf" <[email protected]> wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>>
>>
>>>The 3Q2003 statistics on market share, subscriber totals, subscriber
>>>additions,
>>>quarterly churn, and percentage changes from 2Q2003 are now available on
>>>my web site at "http://nordicgroup.us/ssub/statistics3q.htm"
>>>
>>>These statistics come from the press releases of the wireless carriers.
>>
>>Nice work Steven, but some of your numbers seem a little bit off.
>>Here are the official carrier-reported subscriber figures for Q3'03:
>
>
> Let's try this again. Apparently Google takes out TABs when posting...
>
> wireless carriers 03/03 06/03 09/03 12/03
> ================= ------------------------------
> 1. Verizon Wireless VZ/VOD 33.324 34.619 36.026
> 2. Cingular Wireless SBC/BLS 22.114 22.640 23.385
> 3. AT&T Wireless Services AWE 21.142 21.493 21.855
> 4. Sprint PCS PCS 18.243 18.83M 19.33M
> direct 14.959 15.29M 15.48M
> resale .590 .77M 1.06M
> affiliate 2.694 2.77M 2.79M
> 5. Nextel Communications NXTL/NXTP 11.092 11.683 12.329
> 6. T-Mobile DT 10.837 11.443 12.113
> 7. ALLTEL AT 7.761 7.872 7.928
> 8. U.S. Cellular USM 4.240 4.343 4.268
> 9. Dobson Cellular Systems DCEL 1.411 1.565 1.579
> Dobson Communications 718.9k 867.6k 877.8k
> American Cellular 692.1k 697.5k 701.7k
> 10.Western Wireless WWCA 1.216 1.231 1.246
> 11.Rural Cellular Corporation RCCC 728.7k 739.0k 740.4k
> 12.Centennial Wireless CYCL 538.9k 540.9k 548.9k
> 13.Midwest Wireless -- ~~300k ~~340k
Both copies were fine with my Courier New font in my newsreader.
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