NEWS: Get Ready for a Wireless Carrier War

"John Andrews" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
> CS times wont be effected that much
>
> Portability will be done thru sales channels remember...
>
> Only ones that will be calling are the ones that cant port their numbers
> because they havent settled their bills with the previous carrier...
> Sprint has said they wont if you owe anything besides current bill...
>
> Portability isnt a magic wand...

I'm not just talking about portability, I'm also talking about special
holiday plans which will be offered during this same time frame. People will
be calling CS for these new sales, portability and any number of other
reasons.

Even before portability, SPCS hold times go up everytime at that time of the
year, because of the new plans that are offered.

Bob

---

› See More: NEWS: Get Ready for a Wireless Carrier War

The whole hullabaloo about gains/losses/churn/infrastructure is absolute
hogwash. WLNP doesn't cost a penny to implement from the standpoint of
infrastructure. It is "inconvenient" for the carriers to sign-up a WLNP
customer since the number has to be manually entered into, as opposed to
automatically assigned by the computer. So there may be a need to
(temporarily) increase the CS force. The only other "cost" will be the
handset subsidy, which has a simple solution: offer cheap phones.

As for the minute/price/retention wars, depending on the geographical area
there will be winners and there will be losers. But overall the law of
averages will prevail. Besides, it looks like all the carriers will require
a 2-year contract from new WLNP customers.

The carriers who oppose WLNP do so knowing they have poor coverage in the
key markets where people have 3-4 phones per family, and they will lose
share. For instance, there is a good likelihood that Verizon will clean up
the (New York) Tri-State area. They have the best infrastructure. Also look
at their combined voice/data/wireless business products and you'll see no
reason to go to anyone else. Besides, they have quietly upgrading their
infrastructure for about a year and also started improving their stand-by
power in the wake of Blackout 2003. This area carries 27% of the entire US
market, so Sprint, T-Mobile, AT&T should be worried.

The real "problem" is WLNP will ring the death knell of the landline
operators. Most people no longer see a need for a wired phone, but "had to
have" one since cellular numbers weren't "stable". With WLNP the "need" for
a wired phone is truly gone. And the new groups features which allow for
hundreds of phones to be linked in a sub-network (line NexTel but much more
sophisticated) eliminated the need for wire lins even for businesses. By the
end of next year I think we'll see completely "wireless" companies. It's
being done today (but I can't tell you where ;-).

New infrastructure roll-outs will have to wait until the waters clear, say
3-6 months. WLNP-related infrastructure investments will probably not start
before Q2 2004. Sprint, Verizon and T-Mobile have new infrastructure
contracts out, but that's unrelated to WLNP.

So you see, if you look at the real impact of WLNP, the only one affected
will be the individual consumer. He may decide to change carriers, get
locked into a 2-year contract and positively hate it. Now he will be stuck,
with a cheap phone and a number his ex knows all too well. But that guy is
of no concern to the "investor".

Regards,
Doru Roll

"PDA Man" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> Carriers will likely spend heavily to keep customers once number
portability
> kicks in this November.
>
> NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - On Nov. 24, the long-awaited wireless number
> portability rule kicks in, which will allow cell phone users to keep their
> numbers when they switch service providers.
>
> So if the hassle of letting people know your new number is the only reason
> you've stuck with your current service, you will soon be in luck. And
based
> on the backlash the wireless industry received after last month's
blackout,
> there may very well be a bunch of customers looking to switch.
>
> Curiously, the pending change has not fazed investors. (Maybe they are too
> busy chatting away on their cell phones to notice.)
>
> Shares of Nextel are up 64 percent this year. AT&T Wireless has surged 56
> percent. Sprint PCS is up 26.5 percent. And the stocks of several regional
> wireless carriers, such as Triton PCS and Western Wireless are up sharply
>
> Its Going To Get Ugly
> But wireless number portability has the potential to make an already tough
> business even more competitive. "This is going to cause a mess next year
and
> into 2005," said Patrick Comack, an analyst with Guzman & Co. "It's going
to
> be an ugly period for a while."
>
> Comack said that wireless carriers would likely have higher churn rates,
> which means more customers dropping service. In addition, many may
increase
> the amount of handset subsidies, i.e. offering prospective subscribers
cell
> phones at discounted prices.
>
> And in a recent research note, Wachovia analyst Jennifer Fritzsche noted
> that the biggest negative associated with wireless number portability is
not
> that carriers will lose a lot of customers but that they will spend a ton
to
> keep them.
>
> In other words, if you think wireless companies advertise a lot on
> television now, you ain't seen nothing yet.
>
> And of course, the carriers will likely come up with creative new pricing
> plans in order to lure customers and hang on to existing ones.
>
> Add all that up and you have lower profit margins.
>
> "This is going to cause more price wars, minute wars, whatever you want to
> call it," said Comack. "It's great for consumers but terrible for the
> wireless companies."
>
> For complete article
> http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/04/tech...stor/lamonica/
>
>
>
>

The whole hullabaloo about gains/losses/churn/infrastructure is absolute
hogwash. WLNP doesn't cost a penny to implement from the standpoint of
infrastructure. It is "inconvenient" for the carriers to sign-up a WLNP
customer since the number has to be manually entered into, as opposed to
automatically assigned by the computer. So there may be a need to
(temporarily) increase the CS force. The only other "cost" will be the
handset subsidy, which has a simple solution: offer cheap phones.

As for the minute/price/retention wars, depending on the geographical area
there will be winners and there will be losers. But overall the law of
averages will prevail. Besides, it looks like all the carriers will require
a 2-year contract from new WLNP customers.

The carriers who oppose WLNP do so knowing they have poor coverage in the
key markets where people have 3-4 phones per family, and they will lose
share. For instance, there is a good likelihood that Verizon will clean up
the (New York) Tri-State area. They have the best infrastructure. Also look
at their combined voice/data/wireless business products and you'll see no
reason to go to anyone else. Besides, they have quietly upgrading their
infrastructure for about a year and also started improving their stand-by
power in the wake of Blackout 2003. This area carries 27% of the entire US
market, so Sprint, T-Mobile, AT&T should be worried.

The real "problem" is WLNP will ring the death knell of the landline
operators. Most people no longer see a need for a wired phone, but "had to
have" one since cellular numbers weren't "stable". With WLNP the "need" for
a wired phone is truly gone. And the new groups features which allow for
hundreds of phones to be linked in a sub-network (line NexTel but much more
sophisticated) eliminated the need for wire lins even for businesses. By the
end of next year I think we'll see completely "wireless" companies. It's
being done today (but I can't tell you where ;-).

New infrastructure roll-outs will have to wait until the waters clear, say
3-6 months. WLNP-related infrastructure investments will probably not start
before Q2 2004. Sprint, Verizon and T-Mobile have new infrastructure
contracts out, but that's unrelated to WLNP.

So you see, if you look at the real impact of WLNP, the only one affected
will be the individual consumer. He may decide to change carriers, get
locked into a 2-year contract and positively hate it. Now he will be stuck,
with a cheap phone and a number his ex knows all too well. But that guy is
of no concern to the "investor".

Regards,
Doru Roll

"PDA Man" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
>
> Carriers will likely spend heavily to keep customers once number
portability
> kicks in this November.
>
> NEW YORK (CNN/Money) - On Nov. 24, the long-awaited wireless number
> portability rule kicks in, which will allow cell phone users to keep their
> numbers when they switch service providers.
>
> So if the hassle of letting people know your new number is the only reason
> you've stuck with your current service, you will soon be in luck. And
based
> on the backlash the wireless industry received after last month's
blackout,
> there may very well be a bunch of customers looking to switch.
>
> Curiously, the pending change has not fazed investors. (Maybe they are too
> busy chatting away on their cell phones to notice.)
>
> Shares of Nextel are up 64 percent this year. AT&T Wireless has surged 56
> percent. Sprint PCS is up 26.5 percent. And the stocks of several regional
> wireless carriers, such as Triton PCS and Western Wireless are up sharply
>
> Its Going To Get Ugly
> But wireless number portability has the potential to make an already tough
> business even more competitive. "This is going to cause a mess next year
and
> into 2005," said Patrick Comack, an analyst with Guzman & Co. "It's going
to
> be an ugly period for a while."
>
> Comack said that wireless carriers would likely have higher churn rates,
> which means more customers dropping service. In addition, many may
increase
> the amount of handset subsidies, i.e. offering prospective subscribers
cell
> phones at discounted prices.
>
> And in a recent research note, Wachovia analyst Jennifer Fritzsche noted
> that the biggest negative associated with wireless number portability is
not
> that carriers will lose a lot of customers but that they will spend a ton
to
> keep them.
>
> In other words, if you think wireless companies advertise a lot on
> television now, you ain't seen nothing yet.
>
> And of course, the carriers will likely come up with creative new pricing
> plans in order to lure customers and hang on to existing ones.
>
> Add all that up and you have lower profit margins.
>
> "This is going to cause more price wars, minute wars, whatever you want to
> call it," said Comack. "It's great for consumers but terrible for the
> wireless companies."
>
> For complete article
> http://money.cnn.com/2003/09/04/tech...stor/lamonica/
>
>
>
>

This is going to be the biggest nightmare for ANYONE in the wireless
telecom industry, even phone manufacturers.

This is taking place just in time for the holiday season, every provicer
will see insanely high churn rates, but will also see high new
activation rates.

All hell is going to break loose for roughly 3 months, and it will
dwindle down over the next 1-2 years as people get out of their
contraces.

BUT - hopefully there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Customer
servcie on all aspects SHOULD improve, since it seems to be one of the
leading causes of people leaving. In store and out of store service
should get better, companies will also concentrate more on keeping
current customers along with trying to snag current customers from other
carriers.

Since its almost to the point in the US that whoever can get a wireless
phone and wants one, already has one, so new customers (not from other
carriers) will be at a minimum.

I think in the end it will be great for consumers.

[posted via phonescoop.com - free web access to the alt.cellular groups]

This is going to be the biggest nightmare for ANYONE in the wireless
telecom industry, even phone manufacturers.

This is taking place just in time for the holiday season, every provicer
will see insanely high churn rates, but will also see high new
activation rates.

All hell is going to break loose for roughly 3 months, and it will
dwindle down over the next 1-2 years as people get out of their
contraces.

BUT - hopefully there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Customer
servcie on all aspects SHOULD improve, since it seems to be one of the
leading causes of people leaving. In store and out of store service
should get better, companies will also concentrate more on keeping
current customers along with trying to snag current customers from other
carriers.

Since its almost to the point in the US that whoever can get a wireless
phone and wants one, already has one, so new customers (not from other
carriers) will be at a minimum.

I think in the end it will be great for consumers.

[posted via phonescoop.com - free web access to the alt.cellular groups]

On Sat, 06 Sep 2003 14:42:42 -0000, [email protected]
(SprintPCS Tech) wrote:

>This is going to be the biggest nightmare for ANYONE in the wireless
>telecom industry, even phone manufacturers.
>
Geez, just think....The companies may have to kiss the CUSTOMER'S ass,
instead of the other way around......something new for them.


Larry

Extremely intelligent life must exist in the universe.
You can tell because they never tried to contact us.

On Sat, 06 Sep 2003 14:42:42 -0000, [email protected]
(SprintPCS Tech) wrote:

>This is going to be the biggest nightmare for ANYONE in the wireless
>telecom industry, even phone manufacturers.
>
Geez, just think....The companies may have to kiss the CUSTOMER'S ass,
instead of the other way around......something new for them.


Larry

Extremely intelligent life must exist in the universe.
You can tell because they never tried to contact us.

In alt.cellular.verizon Bob Smith <[email protected]> wrote:

> In addition, I'm betting that there will be a 200% increase of phones up for
> auction/sale on eBay as well.

But, at least with Sprint, they won't activate a phone they
didn't originally sell for their service on their network.

- Paul

In alt.cellular.verizon Bob Smith <[email protected]> wrote:

> In addition, I'm betting that there will be a 200% increase of phones up for
> auction/sale on eBay as well.

But, at least with Sprint, they won't activate a phone they
didn't originally sell for their service on their network.

- Paul

In alt.cellular.verizon Doru Roll <[email protected]> wrote:

> With WLNP the "need" for a wired phone is truly gone.

Except if you happen to have SBC DSL. SBC won't just sell you
DSL service: you MUST have a land-line number. You might be
thinking, "Well, of course you need a land-line since DSL runs
over the same copper." Except there's a difference between the
copper and the *number* assigned to the copper. It's certainly
possible to have DSL on a copper pair with no phone number
assigned to it (I used to have this with Northpoint before they
went bankrupt).

And, for me, cable-based broadband isn't an option because they
don't offer static IPs (not to mention cable companies'
Draconian TOS policies).

So, for now, I'm sorta of stuck with my land-line.

- Paul

In alt.cellular.verizon Doru Roll <[email protected]> wrote:

> With WLNP the "need" for a wired phone is truly gone.

Except if you happen to have SBC DSL. SBC won't just sell you
DSL service: you MUST have a land-line number. You might be
thinking, "Well, of course you need a land-line since DSL runs
over the same copper." Except there's a difference between the
copper and the *number* assigned to the copper. It's certainly
possible to have DSL on a copper pair with no phone number
assigned to it (I used to have this with Northpoint before they
went bankrupt).

And, for me, cable-based broadband isn't an option because they
don't offer static IPs (not to mention cable companies'
Draconian TOS policies).

So, for now, I'm sorta of stuck with my land-line.

- Paul

[POSTED TO alt.cellular.cingular - REPLY ON USENET PLEASE]

In <[email protected]> on Sat, 06 Sep 2003
15:56:00 GMT, "Paul J. Lucas" <[email protected]> wrote:

>In alt.cellular.verizon Doru Roll <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> With WLNP the "need" for a wired phone is truly gone.
>
> Except if you happen to have SBC DSL. SBC won't just sell you
> DSL service: you MUST have a land-line number. You might be
> thinking, "Well, of course you need a land-line since DSL runs
> over the same copper." Except there's a difference between the
> copper and the *number* assigned to the copper. It's certainly
> possible to have DSL on a copper pair with no phone number
> assigned to it (I used to have this with Northpoint before they
> went bankrupt).
>
> And, for me, cable-based broadband isn't an option because they
> don't offer static IPs (not to mention cable companies'
> Draconian TOS policies).
>
> So, for now, I'm sorta of stuck with my land-line.

Not really. Transfer the DSL to a number you don't care about on the lowest
possible cost service, and then move your current landline number elsewhere.

--
Best regards, HELP FOR CINGULAR GSM & SONY ERICSSON PHONES:
John Navas <http://navasgrp.home.att.net/#Cingular>

[POSTED TO alt.cellular.cingular - REPLY ON USENET PLEASE]

In <[email protected]> on Sat, 06 Sep 2003
15:56:00 GMT, "Paul J. Lucas" <[email protected]> wrote:

>In alt.cellular.verizon Doru Roll <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> With WLNP the "need" for a wired phone is truly gone.
>
> Except if you happen to have SBC DSL. SBC won't just sell you
> DSL service: you MUST have a land-line number. You might be
> thinking, "Well, of course you need a land-line since DSL runs
> over the same copper." Except there's a difference between the
> copper and the *number* assigned to the copper. It's certainly
> possible to have DSL on a copper pair with no phone number
> assigned to it (I used to have this with Northpoint before they
> went bankrupt).
>
> And, for me, cable-based broadband isn't an option because they
> don't offer static IPs (not to mention cable companies'
> Draconian TOS policies).
>
> So, for now, I'm sorta of stuck with my land-line.

Not really. Transfer the DSL to a number you don't care about on the lowest
possible cost service, and then move your current landline number elsewhere.

--
Best regards, HELP FOR CINGULAR GSM & SONY ERICSSON PHONES:
John Navas <http://navasgrp.home.att.net/#Cingular>

In article <[email protected]>,
[email protected] (SprintPCS Tech) wrote:

> This is going to be the biggest nightmare for ANYONE in the wireless
> telecom industry, even phone manufacturers.
>
> This is taking place just in time for the holiday season, every provicer
> will see insanely high churn rates, but will also see high new
> activation rates.
>
> All hell is going to break loose for roughly 3 months, and it will
> dwindle down over the next 1-2 years as people get out of their
> contraces.
>
> BUT - hopefully there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Customer
> servcie on all aspects SHOULD improve,

You might think, but its not what I expect. With carriers giving better
promotions and bigger discounts to corporations, they will lose income,
and SprintPCS is already a money losing venture cutting corners in
Customer Service. I see no indication (other than a press release) that
SprintPCS is improving Cusotmer Relations.



> since it seems to be one of the
> leading causes of people leaving. In store and out of store service
> should get better, companies will also concentrate more on keeping
> current customers along with trying to snag current customers from other
> carriers.
>
> Since its almost to the point in the US that whoever can get a wireless
> phone and wants one, already has one, so new customers (not from other
> carriers) will be at a minimum.
>
> I think in the end it will be great for consumers.
>
> [posted via phonescoop.com - free web access to the alt.cellular groups]

In article <[email protected]>,
[email protected] (SprintPCS Tech) wrote:

> This is going to be the biggest nightmare for ANYONE in the wireless
> telecom industry, even phone manufacturers.
>
> This is taking place just in time for the holiday season, every provicer
> will see insanely high churn rates, but will also see high new
> activation rates.
>
> All hell is going to break loose for roughly 3 months, and it will
> dwindle down over the next 1-2 years as people get out of their
> contraces.
>
> BUT - hopefully there is a light at the end of the tunnel. Customer
> servcie on all aspects SHOULD improve,

You might think, but its not what I expect. With carriers giving better
promotions and bigger discounts to corporations, they will lose income,
and SprintPCS is already a money losing venture cutting corners in
Customer Service. I see no indication (other than a press release) that
SprintPCS is improving Cusotmer Relations.



> since it seems to be one of the
> leading causes of people leaving. In store and out of store service
> should get better, companies will also concentrate more on keeping
> current customers along with trying to snag current customers from other
> carriers.
>
> Since its almost to the point in the US that whoever can get a wireless
> phone and wants one, already has one, so new customers (not from other
> carriers) will be at a minimum.
>
> I think in the end it will be great for consumers.
>
> [posted via phonescoop.com - free web access to the alt.cellular groups]