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- 11-02-2003, 05:14 AM #1CAT0NHATGuest
Some SprintPCS apologists are misinformed. Churn rate is a monthly figure
reported quarterly.
Just because it is reported quarterly doesn't mean it is a quarterly rate, IT
ISNT.
http://www.sltrib.com/2003/Nov/11022...ess/107327.asp (monthly)
http://searchcrm.techtarget.com/orig...11_gci932757,0
0.html (25%)
http://www.informationweek.com/story...cleID=15600354
(25%)
http://www.ajc.com/business/content/...rtability.html
› See More: High SprintPCS churn - documented
- 11-02-2003, 07:06 AM #2JeffGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
"CAT0NHAT" <[email protected]> wrote:
> Some SprintPCS apologists are misinformed. Churn rate is a monthly figure
> reported quarterly.
[With apologies only for the length of this posting]
Well, it just depends on what sources you quote. After checking out
Flipper's links, I did a brief search of my own. I discovered three things:
(1) there are plenty of sources that discuss churn as a quarterly figure;
(2) regardless of whether the churn rate should be reported as a quarterly
figure or as a cumulative monthly figure (as Flipper insists), SprintPCS has
a lot of company with higher-than-desired churn rates and with concern about
the impact of number portability (using one of Flipper's own links, the two
"best" wireless phone companies have churn rates of [Verizon] 28% and
[Nextel] 25% [using Flipper's cumulative monthly statistical method]; and
(3) Flipper's "sky is falling" rantings are entertaining but inaccurate.
Below, I will list some links (with relevant passages copied from the
article) that I found so folks can check for themselves. What you'll see
from these links is that the churn rate is consistently discussed as a
quarterly figure, that SprintPCS has actually seen churn rate improvement
when you look longitudinally over the past few years, and that the current
churn rate is pretty much where SprintPCS predicted it would be. In fact,
maintaining a churn rate at approximately 2.5% was a *goal* of SprintPCS, as
they noted that successfully addressing the churn problem is difficult and
multifactorial. As an aside, churn is a significant problem for lots of
companies, and especially for tech companies. If you do the search, you'll
find a lot of articles about churn rates for, say, internet service
providers, and their churn rates are remarkably similar to those for the
wireless phone industry. Also, "churn" is simplistically defined as the loss
of customers/subscribers in a given period, but it is actually the
comparison of the loss of customers to the gaining of new customers.
And finally (and a bit off-topic), I saw a lot of Flipper's rantings and
ravings about SprintPCS not having accurate coverage maps. Now that
SprintPCS has provided access to its tower maps (down the the street level,
I might add), shouldn't Flipper be heaping praise upon SprintPCS for giving
him what he's been craving? Of course, that would mean he would have some
sense of decency and fairness, and we know that's not the case.
Here's the info:
Wirelessweek.com, 10/22/01
http://www.wirelessweek.com/index.as...cleid=CA178798
churn increased to 2.6 percent from 2.2 percent in the previous quarter,
with management cautioning that it could reach 3 percent next quarter.
Sprint News Release, 12/4/01
http://www3.sprint.com/PR/CDA/PR_CDA...1,4340,00.html
Churn is expected to be around 3 percent for fourth quarter 2001. For the
full year of 2002, Sprint expects churn to be in the upper 2-percent range.
The company believes that over the long-term churn could be sustained at a
mid-2 percent level.
The Kansas City Business Journal, 1/15/02
http://kansascity.bizjournals.com/ka...4/daily13.html
PCS released net customer addition numbers of 1.114 million as well as a
churn rate of 3 percent for the fourth quarter.
USA Today
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/techinv...nt-churn_x.htm
Although Sprint's total wireless subscribers grew by nearly 500,000 during
the third quarter, that net gain included the loss of about 2.7% of the
wireless customer base during the quarter. By contrast, "churn" - the
percentage of subscribers who drop service - in the second quarter was 2.4%.
Strategy Analytics
http://www.strategyanalytics.com/press/PR00074.htm
The top five US carriers have all posted encouraging results in 2Q 2003,
with solid improvements in churn, producing a strong jump in subscriber
numbers and healthy EBITDA growth. Without the churn gains, both net
additions and EBITDA margins would have fallen. Instead, the carriers
achieved more than a 50 percent year on year increase in combined net
additions, as well as a 1.6 percentage point improvement in EBITDA margins.
Phil Kendall, Director of the Strategy Analytics Global Wireless Practice,
comments, "Sprint PCS saw the greatest impact from its falling churn rate,
now at its lowest level this decade. This was almost solely responsible for
its EBITDA margins topping the 30 percent mark for the first time."
Associated Press report in the Tallahassee Democrat
http://www.tallahassee.com/mld/talla...ss/7103105.htm
Although Sprint Corp.'s total wireless subscribers grew by nearly 500,000
during the third quarter, that net gain included the loss of about 2.7
percent of the wireless customer base during the quarter. By contrast,
"churn" - the percentage of subscribers who drop service - in the second
quarter was 2.4 percent.
The Street.com
http://aol.thestreet.com/tech/telecom/10121578.html
Sprint PCS, which on Thursday posted third-quarter numbers along with its
big telco parent Sprint (FON-NYSE) , reported a surprisingly high
customer-churn number of 2.7%. That's up from 2.4% in the second quarter and
indicates that the company is losing customers at a greater rate than many
of its rivals
The Street.com
http://www.thestreet.com/pf/tech/sco.../10121888.html
Both Sprint and AT&T Wireless said this week that their churn jumped to 2.7%
last quarter
Xchange
http://www.xchangemag.com/hotnews/3ah23104210.html
Sprint Corp. on Thursday said a decision to quit a strategy to provide
broadband service to homes over a fixed wireless network was partly
responsible for a loss in the third quarter.
Sprint said churn - the percent of PCS customers leaving - was 2.7 percent.
That is an improvement compared to 3.8 percent churn in the quarter a year
ago. Sprint PCS added 496,000 customers in the quarter, ending the period
with 19.3 million subscribers.
- 11-02-2003, 07:13 AM #3CAT0NHATGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
> What you'll see from these links is that the churn > rate is consistently
discussed as a
> quarterly figure,
A monthly rate, reported quarterly.
- 11-02-2003, 09:35 AM #4Scott StephensonGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
CAT0NHAT wrote:
> Some SprintPCS apologists are misinformed. Churn rate is a monthly figure
> reported quarterly.
>
> Just because it is reported quarterly doesn't mean it is a quarterly rate,
> IT ISNT.
>
> http://www.sltrib.com/2003/Nov/11022...ess/107327.asp (monthly)
>
> http://searchcrm.techtarget.com/orig...11_gci932757,0
> 0.html (25%)
>
> http://www.informationweek.com/story...cleID=15600354
> (25%)
>
> http://www.ajc.com/business/content/...rtability.html
Still don't see Sprint be attributed a 25% churn. And BTW, the two links
that mention 25% churn are the same article, you freak, and TechWeb
obviously has basd figures (yes, I am challenging the accuracy of the
article). No carrier loses 1/4 of their customer base every year.
- 11-02-2003, 09:39 AM #5Scott StephensonGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
Thanks, Jeff- the troll is sometimes oblivious to the facts.
- 11-02-2003, 09:42 AM #6Scott StephensonGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
CAT0NHAT, in an apparent attempt to have grown-up thoughts, stepped away
from his favorite episode of Sesame Street, and took his thumb out of his
mouth long enough to type:
>> What you'll see from these links is that the churn > rate is consistently
> discussed as a
>> quarterly figure,
>
> A monthly rate, reported quarterly.
Says you, the fountain of misinformation. THey are quarterly, and until you
can show Sprint talking about them as a monthly figure (Not average
monthly, not quarterly, not weekly) then they will reamin as reported- a
quarterly figure)
- 11-02-2003, 10:56 AM #7CAT0NHATGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
I posted three links to the 25% churn. Keep ignoring them and attacking me if
you like, but it won't get SprintPCS's stock price back above 5.
- 11-02-2003, 10:57 AM #8CAT0NHATGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
Onlt to a Sprint apologist would a tower map be as good as a coverage map.
- 11-02-2003, 11:05 AM #9Scott StephensonGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
CAT0NHAT wrote:
> Onlt to a Sprint apologist would a tower map be as good as a coverage map.
You should look at the posts before responding- I mentioned nothing of maps.
Yet another instance where you show a lack of intelligence, troll.
- 11-02-2003, 11:07 AM #10Scott StephensonGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
CAT0NHAT wrote:
> I posted three links to the 25% churn. Keep ignoring them and attacking me
> if you like, but it won't get SprintPCS's stock price back above 5.
None of them said that Sprint had 25% churn, and the article by the Tech
nerds (which you posted twice) is based on faulty calculations. And yes,
that does mean that I am saying that their information is wrong, and that I
might know a little more about the subject than they do.
- 11-02-2003, 05:23 PM #11JeffGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
"CAT0NHAT" <[email protected]> wrote:
> > What you'll see from these links is that the churn > rate is
consistently
> discussed as a
> > quarterly figure,
>
> A monthly rate, reported quarterly.
You can continue to spout the same stuff, Flipper, but that doesn't make it
so. Take a look at Sprint's own financial filings, which you can view from
their web site. They report quarterly churn rates (2.8% for Quarter xx, 3.3%
for Quarter xx), just as they report quarterly earnings/losses, etc. The
earnings/losses are not "monthly [figures] reported quarterly." They
represent the total for the quarter. Same is true for the churn rate. It's
the total churn rate for the quarter, not a monthly rate that you should
magically multiply by 3 to get a total rate for the quarter. But if you're
adamant that you're right and I'm wrong, then prove it to me. Get the actual
figures and show me that the churn rate is a monthly, not a quarterly, rate.
And be sure to provide a link to the data so you can prove you didn't just
make up some numbers like you make up newsgroup IDs.
It's also fascinating that you didn't address any of the other points in my
previous post or in the articles whose links I provided. Not that I expected
you to, as that would have been totally out of character.
- 11-02-2003, 05:28 PM #12JeffGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
"Scott Stephenson" <[email protected]> wrote:
> CAT0NHAT wrote:
>
> > I posted three links to the 25% churn. Keep ignoring them and attacking
me
> > if you like, but it won't get SprintPCS's stock price back above 5.
>
>
> None of them said that Sprint had 25% churn, and the article by the Tech
> nerds (which you posted twice) is based on faulty calculations. And yes,
> that does mean that I am saying that their information is wrong, and that
I
> might know a little more about the subject than they do.
Correct. None of them said that Sprint had a 25% churn rate. Besides, I
don't just blindly rely on what someone, especially someone in the press,
writes. To quote a favorite saying of mine, "A journalist uses statistics
like a drunk uses a lamppost....for support rather than for illumination."
What I look for are the data....and Flipper has yet to provide any data to
support his claims.
- 11-02-2003, 05:31 PM #13CAT0NHATGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
"Jeff" <A HREF="mailto:[email protected]">[email protected]</A>
doubts the monthly figures based only on his say so.
Take 20 seconds.
Go to Google
Search on
Wireless Monthly churn 2003
read the links, then apologize.
- 11-02-2003, 05:31 PM #14CAT0NHATGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
"Jeff" <A HREF="mailto:[email protected]">[email protected]</A>
doubts the monthly figures based only on his say so.
Take 20 seconds.
Go to Google
Search on
Wireless Monthly churn 2003
read the links, then apologize.
- 11-02-2003, 05:39 PM #15Scott StephensonGuest
Re: High SprintPCS churn - documented
Jeff wrote:
>
> Correct. None of them said that Sprint had a 25% churn rate. Besides, I
> don't just blindly rely on what someone, especially someone in the press,
> writes. To quote a favorite saying of mine, "A journalist uses statistics
> like a drunk uses a lamppost....for support rather than for illumination."
> What I look for are the data....and Flipper has yet to provide any data to
> support his claims.
And like you, I'm not going to hold my breath waiting for the clueless trool
to provide any facts. He either makes crap up, or twists things to fit his
narrow view of the world. As a Business and Systems Analyst inside the
industry (there you go, Phil- there's my lack of a vested interest), Wall
Street and the media are only starting points for any true analysis, and in
many cases are more' after the fact'. But Phil's tiny little brain will
never understand that.
And phil- before you get all excited, I have no affiliation with Sprint,
either professionally or financially. Guess there's no need for me to
apologize for a company I have no tie to, is there?
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