The reason why Oxford's wacky predictions won't happen

On Wed, 7 Nov 2007, Todd Allcock wrote:
> Unlikely, since no other device sold currently fills the BB's particular
> niche. iPhone's support of secure corporate e-mail is pitiful to non-
> existant, and currently consists of using IMAP, which any decent phone
> can do, and is not a good solution for security minded organizations.

Folklore to the contrary notwithstanding, IMAP is fine for security. The
problem is whether or not the IMAP implementation is any good.

Most IMAP implementations on mobile devices, including iPhone, are not
very good; they are basically POP client that have been hacked to babble
IMAP, and do not use any of IMAP's capabilities other than multiple
folders (why POP3 deleted the POP2 FOLD command remains a mystery to most
of the world).

To make things worse, many of the current generation of mobile phone IMAP
clients (including iPhone) either don't implement any security at all, or
only implement the 1990s SSL security and not the modern TLS/SASL
security.

There's a new generation of mobile device IMAP clients being developed in
Canada, Scandanavia, and China that are quite a bit better. Part of the
impetus is to move away from push technology due to patent issues.

-- Mark --

http://staff.washington.edu/mrc
Science does not emerge from voting, party politics, or public debate.
Si vis pacem, para bellum.

---

› See More: The reason why Oxford's wacky predictions won't happen

DTC <[email protected]> wrote:

> Oxford wrote:
> > the iphone outsells the blackberry and will from here on out.
>
> Citation please

http://www.computerworlduk.com/techn...evices/news/in
dex.cfm?newsid=5004

Bob Campbell <[email protected]> wrote:

> > the iphone outsells the blackberry and will from here on out.
>
> Even it that is true - which I seriously doubt - it doesn't matter.
> The iphone and BlackBerry are in totally different markets.

ah, they are in the same market, both are perfect for business but the
blackberry doesn't have the large development community behind it, nor
is it built on UNIX. the iPhone is.

> Companies
> and governments around the world are NOT going to dump their
> BlackBerries for iphones,

maybe not this year but within 3 years the iphone will be the primary
smartphone in use, it just has a lot more power under the hood and fits
better into business settings since it's easier to use, far larger
screen and cheaper.

> The iphone simply does not have the
> capabilities of a Blackberry.

opps, you have it backwards, the iphone is several years ahead on the
hardware side and about a decade ahead with the OS and number of
developers.

> It's like saying cars outsell airplanes
> and therefore airplanes had a good run but are now dead.

it's more like the iphone is a lear jet, every business person wants one
and apple was the first to make them affordable. the iphone is the best
business tool probably ever developed, you'll catch up with what is
happening in a few years.

> So, once again you are wrong.

yes, you were.

learn about "markets" and development it will help you immensely when
you try and debate the likes of me.

DTC <[email protected]> wrote:

> Oxford wrote:
> > IBM pc and the clones didn't last nearly that long, the 286 models were
> > the end of the line compared to the Apple // 6502. The apple // remains
> > to this day the longest running/sold platform.
>
> The 286 was replaced by the 386, ya doofus.

but you are lost on the actual history. the 286 replaced the 8088.

but on the Apple // the 6502 (roughly the same as the 8088) remained the
main processor for 10 years after the PC went to the 286/386,etc...

so the PC and the similar clones didn't last "nearly as long" as the
Apple //.

learn your history or don't post. thanks.

Mark Crispin <[email protected]> wrote:

> On Wed, 7 Nov 2007, Oxford wrote:
> >> You did not agree to the terms of the wager. The wager is not valid until
> > so you are trying to back out of an honest wager? are scared that you
> > will lose?
>
> I am not backing down. However, I require surety that you will fufill
> your part of the wager.
>
> Specifically:
>
> (1) You must provide your correct contact information (name, address, and
> telephone number) and keep me informed of any changes to that contact
> information for the duration of the wager.

You're nuts Mark. I'll keep in touch. I do this all the time with
reporters. I have $150 coming to me since there are still no Viruses on
the Mac and a fairly well known reporter bet that by the time Bush is
out of office there will be. I'm going to easily win that one.

> (2) You must agree that you will do one of the following if you lose:
> (a) provide your iPhone to be smashed, and then eat it.
> (b) eat a smashed Newton MP100 which I will provide.

You're nuts Mark. Should I report you to the computing department at
Washington.edu? You're demands are insane, just do a gentleman's bet and
leave it at that. Are you afraid you are going to lose? It appears so.

> You have not provided your contact information. You attempt to get out of
> having to eat the smashed iPhone (or Newton).
>
> Be a man and accept a man's wager. The terms are listed. Take them or
> leave them.

We have a bet, but I'll only hold up the rational portion of the wager.

> > i'm not hiding anything, and no, qwest could careless about you iphone
> > fears, they would laugh at your attempts to discover who i am.
>
> Don't bet on that point. It's a very straightforward, and quite
> automatic, procedure.

Go for it Mark, qwest doesn't even know I'm on their system due to a
bureaucratic mistake many years ago. You have no access anyway, or legal
claim so give it up, you're insane.

Get a life, get an iPhone.

http://www.iphone.com/

-

On Wed, 07 Nov 2007 22:41:01 -0700, Oxford wrote:

> DTC <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> Oxford wrote:
>> > the iphone outsells the blackberry and will from here on out.
>>
>> Citation please
>
> http://www.computerworlduk.com/techn.../devices/news/
in
> dex.cfm?newsid=5004

<http://www.intomobile.com/2007/09/07...tsold-by-rims-
blackberry-lineup-2-to-1-in-july.html>

<http://arstechnica.com/journals/appl...06/correction-
blackberry-outsells-iphone-2-to-1-in-july>





--
Rick

At 07 Nov 2007 21:36:06 -0800 Mark Crispin wrote:

> Folklore to the contrary notwithstanding, IMAP is fine for security.

I suppose it's dependent on what level of security you're after. More
"paranoid" organizations seek to control how many devices have access to
a particular account, and correct me if I'm wrong, I thought IMAP would
"spill the beans" to any device with the right credentials, wheres BES
can be limited to a single device. As long as I have the right
passwords, I could retrieve my IMAP e-mail on a basket full of compatible
phones, each one with the possibility of being lost or stolen, correct?

I'm not suggesting most organizations NEED the level of security RIM
offers, but AFAIK, it's more controlled than IMAP.

Oxford wrote:

> "Ness Net" <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> This announcement will be a good reason why Oxford's fanatical fanboy
>> bull**** won't happen (iPhone taking over the entire world)
>
> and where did i ever proclaim the iphone would take over the world?
> nope, never happened. sure, the iphone will get around 30-40% of the
> cell market within 8 years, everyone agrees with that.
>
> so i'll proclaim that since the iPod got 72% within 6 years, the iPhone
> should easily get 30-40% of the cell market within 8 years. If i'm a bit
> low on that estimate, i'm sorry.
>
>> Google will partner with all other manufacturer's and eventually CRUSH
>> the iPhone.
>
> Ah, but Google just announced they aren't going to produce a PHONE, they
> are only going to do the software, so by default they have given up on
> the cell market. Nobody is going to put Google Software on a phone.
> That's just ridiculous.
>
> Google (Eric) realized they couldn't compete against the iPhone in
> software or hardware, so they admitted defeat today.
>
> Eric sits on Apple's Board, and was shown the way by Steve.
>
> -

Why would we still be using cellphones by then? This is the 21st century,
something's gotta give sooner or later.


Dave

At 07 Nov 2007 22:41:01 -0700 Oxford wrote:

> > > the iphone outsells the blackberry and will from here on out.
> >
> > Citation please
>
> http://www.computerworlduk.com/technology/mobile-
wireless/devices/news/in
> dex.cfm?newsid=5004


Live by the Google, die by the Google- iSuppli, the analyists quoted in
that article, backpeddled days later:

http://forums.appleinsider.com/showt...threadid=78738

"Presumably under scrutiny, iSuppli on Thursday issued a "clarification"
regarding its earlier report, in which it backpedaled on just how popular
the Apple handset was amongst consumers during its first full month on
the market."


Not that that it matters to you or your trolling, heck, the current
administration proved regarding Iraq's "ties to 9/11" if you repeat a
falsehood often enough, many will believe you.

Bob Campbell <[email protected]> wrote:

> > ah, they are in the same market, both are perfect for business but the
> > blackberry doesn't have the large development community behind it, nor
> > is it built on UNIX. the iPhone is.
>
> So the iphone integrates with Exchange servers and does corporate email,
> calendaring and scheduling?

it supports IMAP in exchange, and plenty of companies have connectivity
solutions to ms's proprietary approach.

http://blog.tmcnet.com/blog/tom-keat...ncs-with-excha
nge-server.asp

http://gizmodo.com/gadgets/apple/pro...server-support
-273492.php

> Guess again doofus.

i proved you wrong again, give it up bob, you are clueless when it comes
to facts

Oxford wrote:
> DTC <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> Oxford wrote:
>>> IBM pc and the clones didn't last nearly that long, the 286 models were
>>> the end of the line compared to the Apple // 6502. The apple // remains
>>> to this day the longest running/sold platform.
>> The 286 was replaced by the 386, ya doofus.
>
> but you are lost on the actual history. the 286 replaced the 8088.
>
> but on the Apple // the 6502 (roughly the same as the 8088) remained the
> main processor for 10 years after the PC went to the 286/386,etc...
>
> so the PC and the similar clones didn't last "nearly as long" as the
> Apple //.

You're lack of common sense and ability to obfuscate simply amazes me.

Apple "the 6502 (roughly the same as the 8088) remained the main
processor for 10 years" and "the PC went to the 286/386,etc..". In other
words, Apple was stagnant while the PC improved with faster processors.

You sir, are simply amazing.

Oxford wrote:
> DTC <[email protected]> wrote:
>
>> Oxford wrote:
>>> the iphone outsells the blackberry and will from here on out.
>> Citation please
>
> http://www.computerworlduk.com/techn...evices/news/in
> dex.cfm?newsid=5004

Go back a few messages.... you'll see that you taking that information
out of context.

But more to the point...tell how the sales are NOW, after the flash wore
off.

Bob Campbell <[email protected]> wrote:

> > > So the iphone integrates with Exchange servers and does corporate email,
> > > calendaring and scheduling?
> >
> > it supports IMAP in exchange, and plenty of companies have connectivity
> > solutions to ms's proprietary approach.
>
> But none are as good or secure as MS's "proprietary approach".

Bob, you really humor me. Apple's OSX Server implementation is far and
away more secure than Exchange, plus it doesn't suffer from the huge /
unworkable "singe" database approach that Exchange employs.

OSX Leopard Server is the way the world is going to work in the next 2
decades, IT departments the world over are fed up with Exchange, so they
are moving to Apple's open OSX Server in droves. Apple has a much better
enterprise solution for the Fortune 5000, the problem is people like you
that want users to suffer.

http://www.apple.com/server/macosx/features/mail.html

> You clearly have no idea what you are talking about here.

ah, but the problem is, I DO... you are still living in the post MS
world. Apple has past them by... but you (and to be fair), many IT
people don't yet understand what Apple has been doing over the last 7
years. It's now the No. 1 solution for enterprise, lowest cost, no per
seat license, fastest servers available.

http://www.apple.com/server/

http://www.apple.com/xserve/

Apple blows everyone away on the high end of business computing...
you'll soon learn this...

> IAC, the iphone has not killed - nor will it EVER kill - BlackBerry.

Sure it will, the Blackberry is the "Commodore" of smartphones. They
just don't have the background in software or hardware to compete
against the likes of Apple. Expect Blackberry to be sold for pennies on
the dollar in less than 6 years. They are already quickly failing
against the iPhone and it's only been out for 185 days!

Remember, February is coming up, and that's the point the remaining
Blackberry developers will move on up to the much larger iPhone platform.

You seem to not understand "value" or "volume". I'll teach you if you
want.

-

DTC <[email protected]> wrote:

> In fact, when all sales of all BlackBerry models for the month of July
> were totaled together, they combined for approximately twice as many
> sales as the iPhone, iSuppli clarified. That would mean that Research in
> Motion's BlackBerry garnered an approximate 3.6 percent share of the US
> mobile handset market compared to Apple's 1.8 percent.

but that was only in july, through only 2 channels in one country.

within 24 hours it will be three countries, (UK and Germany come online
tomorrow at 6:02pm), that's another 400,000 sales right there, then
france is later in the month and that's another 300,000. with less than
8 channels. 4 Countries.

for comparison the iPod has over 38,000 channels, sold in 78 countries.
the Blackberry has less than 3,000 channels, sold in less than 40
countries. the iPod sells a bit over 136,000 units a day! The blackberry
is no where close to that.

Plus you need to understand the iPhone is currently only 1 model, but
the blackberry has 6-8... so once Apple expands the range of the iPhone
brand, the Blackberry fades into dust... percentage wise.

Trust me, this has all been planned out... sell your RIM stock as soon
as you can.

You'll see what is going on within 24 months.

-

DTC <[email protected]> wrote:

> But more to the point...tell how the sales are NOW, after the flash wore
> off.

but apple doesn't do "flash sales" they always build on quality
momentum... look at the ipod sales charts, then you can easily see the
iphone sales charts as everyone goes forward.

the spikes are the holiday quarter...

http://snipurl.com/1tcet

the iPhone is already 15 times more successful than the ipod was within
the first 2-3 years... so you are going to see hundreds of millions of
iphones within the 6 year timeframe.

-